Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2003, 7:34 PM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2003, 7:34 PM CDT (00:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2003, 8:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 41 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Cass County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1767 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
084 WUUS53 KFGF 110034 SVRFGF NDC017-110115- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 733 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 729 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMENIA...OR ABOUT 23 MILES WEST OF FARGO...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTH AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WHEATLAND AT 735 PM... CASSELTON AT 740 PM... DURBIN AT 745 PM AND DAVENPORT AT 800 PM. WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4705 9718 4698 9743 4665 9741 4665 9693 $$ DONAVON
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 3:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 3:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 320 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2003 FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT/FRI AND TEMPS .OVERVIEW... SEVERAL TROUGHS CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. UPPER LEVEL JET ALSO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO REGION...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FAST FLOW AT 500MB. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH NO REAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. LIKED ETA TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE A LITTLE BETTER THAN GFS SO WILL UTILIZE. .TONIGHT... AS ALL AREAS REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AS ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY MOVES IN IN NORTWEST FLOW ALOFT. BEST LIFT SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...BUT ALL AREAS AT RISK FOR SOME THUNDER. EDDY/RICHLAND AND PORTIONS OF WADENA COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED FROM 2 UP TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT IF CONVECTION LINGERS HERE...OR TRAINING ECHOES DEVELOP. STORM MOTION OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE AROUND 3OKT...SO STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT OF POTENTIAL THOUGH. WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION UNTIL AROUND 6Z...WITH MOST OF STORMS DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 9000FT...AND CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WOULDN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND REPORT. AFTER 06Z ANOTHER STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO REGION...WITH LIFT INDICATED BY 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SO WILL MENTION SHOWERS IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z AFTER INSTABILITY WANES AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS...WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE NOTED. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SLIGHT RIDGING BEGINS IN WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEARLY ENTIRE REGION WILL STILL REMAIN IN WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTIVE TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY...SO WILL RAISE TEMPS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. WITH CAPES AROUND 500J/KG...AND LI/S -2 TO -4C ALONG AND EAST OF VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...SO SCATTERED THUNDER ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. MORE CONFIDENT OF THUNDER ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF VALLEY...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION IN ALL ZONES WITH -14C TEMPS AT 500MB EVEN IN WESTERN AREAS BY 00Z SAT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR ABOVE +20C BY SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED... LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER MT/ID MONDAY SHIFTS OVER MT/ND BORDER BY THURSDAY. LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS GENERALLY PRODUCES A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION AND A LAGGING PHASE WITH TIME THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEW 120 HOUR 12Z GFS GOING WITH A FASTER SOLUTION AND NOT QUITE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE AS THE 00Z GFS. SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SO WILL CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN NORTHEAST ZONES. .FGF....NONE. KELLENBENZ/HOPPES
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 6:26 AM CDT, 13 hours 8 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101430- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 626 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THESE WILL BE SEVERE OR HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. RIDDLE
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.