Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 22, 2003, 7:11 PM CDT for Hubbard County, Minnesota. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2003, 7:11 PM CDT (00:11 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 49 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Hubbard County, MN
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 195 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 688 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
597 WUUS53 KFGF 230011 SVRFGF MNC057-230100- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 711 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HUBBARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. * UNTIL 800 PM CDT. * AT 707 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAPORTE...OR ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF BEMIDJI...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... EMMAVILLE AT 755 PM AND DORSET AT 800 PM. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 4710 9467 4730 9476 4703 9513 4686 9490 $$ 04
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 22, 2:50 PM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 22, 2:50 PM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 250 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2003 ...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS POP CHANCES WITH INTERACTION OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY... .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 19Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. MUCH WEAKER BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST SASK PROVINCE TO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE FAVORABLE LFQ OF 250MB JET MAX WAS PUNCHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. INSTABILITY/850MB MOISTURE POOLING WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF TROUGH FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. .FORECAST DETAILS TONIGHT-SUNDAY... BRIEF RIDGING FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE HIGH SHOULD BUILD IN TONIGHT BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM PRESSURE FALLS WITH NEXT TROUGH OVER SASK PROVINCE. TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY ALBEIT SLOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SHOULD HOLD ITS STANCE AND FURTHER IMPEDE EASTWARD PUSH OF TROUGH WITH REMNANTS OF FEATURE IN AN ILL DEFINED FASHION STILL LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SURFACE BASED/ELEVATED WEAK OR NIL WITH MAIN BRUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX AOA 850MB. WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER THREAT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT PROMOTES ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT. HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE LOW LAYERS SUGGEST INITIAL LIFT MAY BE WASTED SATURATING COLUMN. TROUGH WASHES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS RIDING FROM ONTARIO HIGH ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TRAJECTORY AROUND HIGH SHOULD HELP TO ENTRAIN DRIER INFLUX OF AIR INTO REGION SUNDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION POTENTIAL. .EXTENDED... ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY WITH DIFFERENCES BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. ENSEMBLE SET BECOMES QUITE NOISY THROUGH THURSDAY. MANY OF THE MEMBERS BUILD A RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY HOWEVER MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS WERE ZONAL ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND OOZ GFS ON DAY 7 HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS RUN WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS. WILL GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ADD A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FGF...NONE BERG/HOPPES
Hazardous weather outlook, May 22, 6:40 AM CDT, 12 hours 31 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 038-039-049-052>054-221400- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 640 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GV
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.