Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

.OVERVIEW...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE HOLDING FOR
LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST COAST WITH
CUTOFF LOW SLIPPING SOUTHWEST INTO HOT AND DRY TEXAS...WHERE WELCOME
RAINS ARE EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM CAROLINAS TO
GEORGIA WILL ALSO BREAK DOWN THROUGH TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MID WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO EVENING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ROTATES THROUGH NORTH
GEORGIA.  CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARDS LATE EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL ENERGY.  RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES.  CAPPING STRENGTH/500 MB TEMPS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
ADVECT INTO REGION UNDER MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS
ON THE UNDERNEATH SIDE OF BUILDING RIDGE.  THUS GIVE AND TAKE...AND
WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.EXTENDED...
BY SECOND HALF OF WEEK...RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF REGION WITH NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW ACROSS GA AND ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION.  THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION EVEN MORE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TRW.  THIS IN LINE WITH LOWER POPS FOR WEEKEND IN BOTH GFS AND ENS
STATS GUIDANCE...TO BELOW CLIMO.  WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND STRONG
RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...QUESTION WILL BE IF ATL CAN HIT 90 FOR ONLY THE
SECOND TIME THIS YEAR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 68 85 69 86 / 30 40 30 40
KAHN 68 85 69 87 / 30 40 30 40
KGVL 66 84 68 86 / 30 40 30 40
KRMG 68 87 68 87 / 30 40 30 40
KCSG 72 89 71 89 / 40 40 30 40
KMCN 71 87 69 89 / 40 40 30 40

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SHORTWAVE NEAR NORTH GEORGIA MAY KEEP SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION AND FEW CLOUDS. EXPECT UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
UNLIMITED CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT 3-5SM BR MOST AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE.  AHN AND MCN MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW
3SM.

JCD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1220 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-112200-

1220 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST TIME
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AFTERNOON HEATING...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 TO 3000...AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO
MINUS 5...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ097-098-109>112-112015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN TELFAIR...WHEELER...MONTGOMERY...
DODGE...TREUTLEN AND LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST OF SOPERTON TO WEST OF JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH AND A HALF OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND
RISING WATER ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ033-034-045-112030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN DEKALB...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SANDY SPRINGS TO NORTH DECATUR...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND RISING WATER ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
COMMUTERS ON THE NORTH SIDE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY DECREASING
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS SO THAT OTHER
DRIVERS CAN SEE YOU BETTER. SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ023>025-034-035-045>047-112130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ROCKDALE...WALTON...DEKALB...
BARROW...GWINNETT...JACKSON...BANKS AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND GILLSVILLE TO SOUTH OF REDAN...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND RISING WATER ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EVENING COMMUTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY DECREASING
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN...TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS SO THAT OTHER
DRIVERS MAY SEE YOU BETTER. SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ083-092-093-095-096-112200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
505 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN SCHLEY...MACON...BLECKLEY...HOUSTON
AND TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF DANVILLE TO ELLAVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND RISING WATER ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ023>025-034-035-046>048-057-112230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
527 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN HENRY...NEWTON...ROCKDALE...WALTON...
BARROW...GWINNETT...JACKSON...BANKS AND HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OF HOMER TO GILLSVILLE...LOGANVILLE...
CONYERS TO NORTHEAST OF STOCKBRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND RISING WATER ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY DECREASING VISIBILITIES IN
HEAVY RAIN...TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS SO OTHER DRIVERS CAN SEE YOU
BETTER. SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAIN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ012-013-019>021-030-031-112230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN...INTENSE LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN PAULDING...POLK...CHEROKEE...BARTOW...
PICKENS...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST OF CALHOUN TO SOUTH OF CEDARTOWN...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...AND RISING WATER ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. INTENSE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 45 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.