Severe Thunderstorm Warning 373, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...400 AM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG IT MOVING SOUTH INTO N GA. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL BACK INTO
KY/TN. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N GA THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. IT SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING/FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL GENERAL TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NEEDED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT TO TRY AND PINPOINT THE TIMING
A LITTLE BETTER. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD STAY DRY THOROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE THAT SEEPS BACK INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA FRI/SAT
ON SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 85 69 81 67 / 60 70 30 20
KAHN 86 69 82 67 / 60 70 40 20
KGVL 81 67 80 65 / 60 70 30 20
KRMG 85 68 82 65 / 70 70 30 10
KCSG 88 73 84 69 / 50 70 50 30
KMCN 89 72 84 69 / 50 60 60 30

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.CURRENT...BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH OVER GA WITH A PERSISTENT TROF
CHA-CSG. EAST US TROF ALOFT.

.MODELS...THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. PREFER ETA ASS FITS
CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVN SEEMS TOO FAST.

.FORECAST...HIGH TO WEAKEN AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER VORT MOVING THRU
UPPER TROF. SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS OVER MOUNTAINS AS PREFRONTAL TROF
AS FRONT APPROACHES. ISOLATED RW/TRW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY GOES ON. HOWEVER. THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS INDEFINITE, MODEL DEPENDENT THUS LIMITED INCLUDING IN
TAFS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR AT 10Z. IFR IN CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 11-12Z AS TEMPS COOL, THEN IMPROVE
AFTER 14-15Z  TO MVFR-VFR. GREATEST OCCURRENCE WILL BE NORTH.
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PATCHY IFR IN
RW/TRW. TRWS MOST LIKELY WITH FRONT. CURRENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED
RW/TRW WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE MORNING, THEN INCREASE AFTER 00Z IN
COVERAGE AS FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER VORT APPROACH.

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5 THIS AM 5-10 AFTERNOON AND 10-15
EVENING.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-222000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM PENNSYLVANIA TO ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE NATION. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
GEORGIA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND TROUGH SYSTEM.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
RESULTING IN INCREASING WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THIS COULD PRODUCE
RAPID RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ073-221530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING IN BALDWIN COUNTY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER BALDWIN COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA
SHOULD STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT HOUR.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY 1130 AM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1056 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0945 AM    MANSFIELD                 GA   FLOODING
07/22/03   NEWTON                         WATER FLOODING ACROSS
                                          ROADS...DRAINAGE DITCHES
                                          OVERFLOWING.

1002 AM    SOCIAL CIRCLE             GA   FLOODING
07/22/03   WALTON                         WATER FLOWING ACROSS A
                                          FEW ROADS. DRAINAGE
                                          DITHCES OVERFLOWING.

1004 AM    RUTLEDGE                  GA   FLOODING
07/22/03   MORGAN                         WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS.
                                          SIX INCHES PLUS DEEP.
                                          WATER FLOWING ACROSS
                                          YARDS NEAR HOMES.

1024 AM    BOSTWICK                  GA   FLOODING
07/22/03   MORGAN                         NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED.
                                          WATER FLOWING ACROSS
                                          ROADS.

GAZ003-221545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1111 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN NORTH
CATOOSA COUNTY UNTIL 1145 AM EDT...

AT 1109 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER INDIAN SPRINGS...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES OVER EXTREME NORTH CATOOSA COUNTY.

DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 1145 AM EDT.

GAZ083-084-221615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1123 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING IN TWIGGS AND WILKINSON COUNTIES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND WILKINSON COUNTIES. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN CAUSE FIRES.
RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL
APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY 1215 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ006-008-015-016-221645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1138 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
LUMPKIN...WHITE...UNION AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1134 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST FANNIN COUNTY...TO
DAHLONEGA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS FANNIN...LUMPKIN...WHITE...AND
UNION COUNTIES.

DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF FLOODING OF STREETS AND SMALL STREAMS
IS POSSIBLE.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 1245 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ001-002-011-221630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...INTENSE
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN IN CHATTOOGA...DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1039 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA...OR 18 MILES
WEST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
DADE...WALKER...AND CHATTOOGA COUNTIES AROUND NOON. PEA SIZE
HAIL...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH...NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.