Flash Flood Warning 126, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...400 AM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS WEAK BOUNDARY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG IT MOVING SOUTH INTO N GA. THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL BACK INTO
KY/TN. THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N GA THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE. IT SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING/FRI MORNING. ALL IN ALL GENERAL TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NEEDED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT TO TRY AND PINPOINT THE TIMING
A LITTLE BETTER. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD STAY DRY THOROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE THAT SEEPS BACK INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA FRI/SAT
ON SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPS NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEED AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 85 69 81 67 / 60 70 30 20
KAHN 86 69 82 67 / 60 70 40 20
KGVL 81 67 80 65 / 60 70 30 20
KRMG 85 68 82 65 / 70 70 30 10
KCSG 88 73 84 69 / 50 70 50 30
KMCN 89 72 84 69 / 50 60 60 30

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.CURRENT...BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH OVER GA WITH A PERSISTENT TROF
CHA-CSG. EAST US TROF ALOFT.

.MODELS...THEY DIFFER IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. PREFER ETA ASS FITS
CURRENT CONDITIONS. AVN SEEMS TOO FAST.

.FORECAST...HIGH TO WEAKEN AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTH GA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER VORT MOVING THRU
UPPER TROF. SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS OVER MOUNTAINS AS PREFRONTAL TROF
AS FRONT APPROACHES. ISOLATED RW/TRW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY GOES ON. HOWEVER. THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS INDEFINITE, MODEL DEPENDENT THUS LIMITED INCLUDING IN
TAFS.

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR AT 10Z. IFR IN CLOUDS AND FOG
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY 11-12Z AS TEMPS COOL, THEN IMPROVE
AFTER 14-15Z  TO MVFR-VFR. GREATEST OCCURRENCE WILL BE NORTH.
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PATCHY IFR IN
RW/TRW. TRWS MOST LIKELY WITH FRONT. CURRENT DEVELOPING ISOLATED
RW/TRW WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE MORNING, THEN INCREASE AFTER 00Z IN
COVERAGE AS FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER VORT APPROACH.

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SW 5 THIS AM 5-10 AFTERNOON AND 10-15
EVENING.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
603 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO GEORGIA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WITH AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH OF AN ATLANTA
TO ATHENS LINE. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FROM 2PM ONWARD.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL
COMBINES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S. CAPE WILL
BE INCREASING TO NEAR 1000 OVER NORTH GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WINDS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER AND
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY EXCEPT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.