Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
310 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING MUCH IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS. STILL
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY AIRMASS CONVECTION THIS EVENING DYING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DONT EXPECT AS MUCH SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH 500MB TEMPERATURE A GOOD 2 DEGREES
WARMER ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING...IN FACT ENTIRE SOUNDING FROM
AROUND 700-400MB WAS WARMER THIS MORNING. MODIFIED MORNING FFC
SOUNDING TO 85 DEGREES UNLEASHES ONLY AROUND 500J/KG VS NEARLY
2500J/KG YESTERDAY. TOMORROW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS TAIL-END OF THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRUSHES NORTH GEORGIA AND PUSHES SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS FOR NOW THAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
AND TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF SHORE...LEAVING NORTH GEORGIA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. RIDGE AXIS CROSSES EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 62 83 60 81 / 30 40 30 10
KAHN 62 83 59 82 / 50 40 30 10
KGVL 60 81 56 79 / 50 40 30 10
KRMG 60 83 58 81 / 40 40 30 10
KCSG 64 87 64 85 / 30 40 30 10
KMCN 64 87 64 84 / 30 40 30 10

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.

 20

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-020300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF GEORGIA AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST...A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER GEORGIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY  A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF AN ATLANTA TO
GREENSBORO LINE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT MAINLY OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. AFTERNOON HEATING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S. CAPES WILL
BE IN THE 1500 TO 1800 RANGE... HELICITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 50 TO 100 RANGE...AND LIFTED INDICES IN THE MINUS 4 TO MINUS
6 RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
WINDS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ001>003-020045-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
802 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN DADE...WALKER AND
CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN TO TRENTON TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS STATION...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS LINE OF STORMS PASSES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 845 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ104-020030-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
808 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL IN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ089-020045-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL IN MUSCOGEE COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ004-005-011-012-019-020100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
818 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN FLOYD...CHATTOOGA...
GORDON...WHITFIELD AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 816 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM VARNELL TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROME...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LINE PASSES.  BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND PEA-SIZED HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 900 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ080-020100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
833 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL IN TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM EDT...

AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ005>007-012-013-020145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
857 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
PICKENS...GORDON...GILMER...FANNIN AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
EDT...

AT 857 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8 MILES WEST OF MCCAYSVILLE TO 13 MILES
WEST OF FAIRMOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL SMALLER THAN DIMES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT PASSES.  SMALL TREE LIMBS CAN BE SNAPPED
AND LIGHT OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND WITH THE PASSING OF THESE
STORMS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 945 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.