Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
450 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM LOUISIANA WITH
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. AS LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST...WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
REACHING NORTHCENTRAL GEORGIA BY 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST...REACHING A BLAIRSVILLE TO LAWRENCEVILLE TO AMERICUS LINE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH EXTREME NORTH THIS
MORNING...WHERE WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR
MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MODELS
SIMILAR WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTH SECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END ALL PRECIP BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAKER SYSTEM
APPROACHES STATE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS SIMILAR WITH
KEEPING BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF GEORGIA. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP EXTREME NORTH BUT WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NORTHCENTRAL SECTIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA MONDAY WITH DRY FORECAST INTO TUESDAY.  NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN (MAINLY
NORTH) LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KATL 66 39 57 43 / 100 10 10 20
KAHN 66 39 59 40 / 100 10 10 20
KGVL 64 39 57 38 / 100 20 10 20
KRMG 65 39 57 41 / 100 20 10 30
KCSG 70 43 64 43 / 100 10 10 10
KMCN 71 43 64 42 / 100 10 10 10

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH FAR NORTH THIS MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. LOW
CEILINGS POTENTIALLY HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS VEERING TO THE S AND
THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS LOW IN THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE
CONVECTION MOVES BY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO 3000 TO 4000 FT CEILINGS
WITH VSBYS P6SM. BDL

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-221600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING EXPECTED THIS MORNING
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE STATE BY AFTERNOON.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WEST
GEORGIA BY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE STATE BY MID EVENING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE STATE BY MIDDAY.  THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FLOODING.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM BLUE RIDGE TO ATLANTA TO ATHENS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ENTER GEORGIA FROM THE WEST AT 600 AM AND MOVE INTO EASTERN GEORGIA
BY 11 A.M.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE.  DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABLITY...WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS ARE OCCURRING 3 TO 5
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.  ALSO...THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES
WITH HEIGHT WHICH CAN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ROTATION.  FOR THIS
REASON...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.

STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS
STILL POSSIBLE.  AFTER THE SQUALL LINE PASSES THIS MORNING...A
SECOND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH GEORGIA AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALREADY ACTIVATED THE REGIONAL
SKYWARN NETWORK THIS MORNING.  SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL THROUGHOUT WEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

LPR

GAZ031-042>044-053-220745-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR GUSTY WINDS IN COWETA...DOUGLAS...
CARROLL...PAULDING AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EST...

AT 211 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORM FROM BREMEN TO WHITESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH TO EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM DALLAS TO EAST POINT BY 240 PM.
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 245 AM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED.

GAZ066-078-089-090-102-221145-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN
CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS...MUSCOGEE...STEWART...AND TROUP COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WEST GEORGIA FROM ALABAMA BETWEEN LAGRANGE
AND FT. BENNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOUR. MOTORISTS OF
THIS AREA SHOULD SLOW DOWN OR AVOID TRAVEL DURING THE NEXT
HOUR...AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY 630 AM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

GAZ053-054-056-067-068-221215-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING IN COWETA...FAYETTE...MERIWETHER...PIKE...SPALDING...
COUNTIES.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO COWETA...FAYETTE...MERIWETHER...PIKE...
AND SPALDING COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN
CAUSE FIRES. RESIDENTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES...AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY 700 AM EST.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0618 AM    SMITHS MILL               GA   WIND DAMAGE
02/22/03   TROUP                          TRAILER PARK DAMAGE NEAR
                                          THE INTERSECTION OF OLD
                                          CHIPLEY ROAD AND HAMILTON
                                          ROAD. 25-30 TRAILERS
                                          DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY TROUP
                                          COUNTY 911.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
743 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0618 AM    SMITHS MILL               GA   WIND DAMAGE
02/22/03   TROUP                          TRAILER PARK DAMAGE NEAR
                                          THE INTERSECTION OF OLD
                                          CHIPLEY ROAD AND HAMILTON
                                          ROAD. 25-30 TRAILERS
                                          DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY TROUP
                                          COUNTY 911.

0715 AM    COVINGTON                 GA   WIND DAMAGE
02/22/03   NEWTON                         NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR
                                          THE INTERSECTION OF
                                          HIGHWAY 142 EAST AND
                                          HIGHWAY 278. REPORTED BY
                                          NEWTON COUNTY 911.

0720 AM    OLA                       GA   WIND DAMAGE
02/22/03   HENRY                          NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR
                                          THE INTERSECTION OF
                                          HIGHWAY 81 AND KEYS FERRY
                                          STREET. REPORTED BY HENRY
                                          COUNTY 911.