Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM UP POPS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ONGOING DRY TREND.
REMOVED POPS FROM SAT AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY....WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #213 IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. NEW SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

11/01/WR

.EWX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY UNTIL 10 PM
CDT.

WILL HAVE AROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE NORTH OF CWA THEN MOVING/DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.  AS PER SPC DISCUSSION WILL BROADEN MENTION OF SVR TSTMS
TONIGHT.  WILL EXPECT SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND SATURDAY
MORNING.  BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ROCKIES,
THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BREAK UP THE BOUNDARIES.
EXPECTING CONVECTION ON THE DRY LINE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES.  DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP TSTMS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AS THEY MOVE EAST AND
APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS, THE STORMS WILL WEKAEN TO SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PUT US BACK IN THE
LATE-NIGHT-AND-MORNING-CLOUDINESS CATEGORY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTERNOONS.  WHILE THE  MODELS HAVE THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOST U.S., THE AVN HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY STREAM TOWARD TEXAS MONDAY.  THIS COULD SET OFF A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EMERGING DRY LINE/PACIFIC FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST (WHERE SST ANOMALIES ARE 1-2 DEGREES CELSIUS BELOW
NORMAL) AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MEXICO WEDNESDAY,
THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY
RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW AGAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY.  POPS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT MAINLY OVER HILL
COUNTRY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
AUS 70 90 71 93 73  3---
SAT 71 90 72 93 72  2---
DRT 70 97 72 99 72  --00

06/04/DC

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A CUERO TO SAN ANTONIO TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG A COOL FRONT AND
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EVENING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  THE GREATEST THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LA GRANGE TO SAN
MARCOS TO HARPER LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES
MONDAY EVENING AND ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
VAL VERDE COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.