Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CAPES MOVING UP TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 OVER EASTERN PORTIONS...SO POSSIBLY SEVERE
LOOKS GOOD. SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT ALONG RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BE AROUND THE CENTURY MARK THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ADDED MOISTURE AND LACK OF WESTERLIES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL PROBABLY MAKE HILL COUNTRY TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER ON
HIGHS.

02/18/KW

MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SCNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES ARE TEMPS...POPS...AND SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEK. THE 00Z NCEP
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THAT MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ALL WEEK. OVERALL...WILL GO WITH A BLEND SOLUTION OF
THE GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS THROUGH DAY 5...THEN TREND IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AFTER THAT. LIKEWISE...WILL BLEND MAV/FWC GUIDANCE AND
TREND WITH MEX FOR DAYS 5-7.

REALLY INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK AS THE TOP OF THE
WRN RIDGE AND THE BOTTOM OF THE ERN TROUGH BREAK OFF AND FUJIWARA
AROUND EACH OTHER IN THE PLAINS. THE NET FOR CNTRL TX IS THE UPPER
LOW LOWERING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING LIFT (HENCE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES)...THUS LOWER TEMPS AND HIGHER POPS. THE BEST BETS WILL BE
WHEN PW AND JET STREAK FORCING ARE BEST...TODAY AND THU. ANOTHER
LARGE SLUG OF HIGH PW AIR IS POISED TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND. WV IMAGERY WITH THIS HIGH PW AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE FL
STRAITS AND THE WWRD MOVEMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
PROVIDE THE ERLY FLOW TO MOVE THE SLUG FIT IN WITH THE MODEL
PROJECTIONS. THIS COULD MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL MENTION ISOLD SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. AGREE WITH SPC
OUTLOOK...BUT ERN TX SEEMS MORE IN THE THREAT AREA...AND STORMS WILL
BE ISOLD IN COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH.

.EWX...NONE.

26/13

PRELIMS...
AUS BB 096/073 092/070 090 333
DRT BB 100/077 094/072 090 233
SAT BB 096/074 092/070 090 233

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE ON THURSDAY WHEN DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FOR THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.