Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

MID-JUNE UPPER LOW IS CREATING THE FOCUS FOR MAINLY NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS HIGH IN THE DAYTIME, BUT EXPECT MOST OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR OUTSIDE OF A 10AM TO 3PM WINDOW. POPS TO
BE HIGH FOR THIS MORNING AS THE RAINS GOT A LATE START AND WILL
LIKELY CARRY OVER INTO MUCH OF THE MORNING--ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
WHERE MESO-ETA QPF IS HIGHEST.

WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL AREAS
AS THE UPPER LOW IS WELL TRACKED BY CONSECTUTIVE RUNS OF THE AVN TO
REMAIN A PEST FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. WILL KEEP SEVERE IN THROUGH
DAY 1 WITH HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED FOR DAY 2 BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
SHOULD AGAIN BE AT NIGHT, AND WITH SOME STABILITY FOLLOWING THIS
MORNINGS ROUND OF STORMS, SHOULD BECOME REDUCED OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS FOR TODAY.

MOST MODEL DATA SUGGEST GRADUAL SHIFTING OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST IN THE TUES-THURS TIMEFRAME WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HOLD CLOSE TO NEAR PERSISTENCE TEMPS EARLY, THEN
GIVING WAY TO GUIDANCES AND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 088/067/088/067/090 65443
DRT 092/072/092/072/096 55443
SAT 091/068/091/068/092 65443

.EWX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTH
       CENTRAL TEXAS

18/2

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS MORNING MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS
A RESULT AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...IF LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE AGAIN. MAIN THREATS ARE FROM LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY IN AN
INCREASINGLY NORTH FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
155 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0123 AM    ADAMS LAKE AT HWY 16N
           FREDERICKSBURG            TX   .75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   GILLESPIE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
159 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0151 AM    TOW                       TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   LLANO                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
245 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0232 AM    OLD HARPER ROAD
           HARPER                    TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/15/03   GILLESPIE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

DC