Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2003

SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP IMPORTING MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP IT TRAPPED OVER THE REGION
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT BREEZES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA
WEST SLOPES. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INITIATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL...AND BE SLIGHTLY WARMER LATE
THIS WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A DECENT LOW LEVEL...BUT RELATIVELY SHALLOW...
EAST PUSH INTO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE
COMING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS DOING
ITS BEST TO KEEP THE AREA STABLE...BUT ITS NO MATCH FOR INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THUS THE CURRENT
ROUND OF MOUNTAIN STORMS.  AVN AND ETA BOTH INDICATE A NUMBER OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DOWN THE FRONTSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WOULD HELP NOCTURNAL
AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND SHOWERS...AND ALSO ENHANCE SOME
LOWLAND AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ALL DEPENDENT ON TIMING. AVN LOOKS TO
OVERDO THE VORT CENTERS/SHORTWAVES LEADING ME TO THINK IT COULD BE A
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.

WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF KEEPING DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING POPS IN FOR TUE AND WED...AND ADD SOME OVERNIGHT POPS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. LATE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AS THE SFC HEAT TROUGH
OVER THE BOOTHEEL ERODES AND ALLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CWFA. ALSO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER AND SHIFTS EAST TO
HELP STABILIZE THE AREA.

FOR THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW IS ANALYZED TO LIFT JUST NORTH OF THE
CWFA. WILL PUT SOME SAT POPS IN THE GILA BUT KEEP THE REST OF THE
AREA DRY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               BB 068/092 066/093 068 21212
ALAMOGORDO            EB 062/092 061/093 063 22222
LAS CRUCES            BU 066/092 064/093 066 21212
CLOUDCROFT            EB 044/071 045/072 047 33333
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BU 061/090 060/091 062 22222
SILVER CITY           BU 051/089 051/090 053 23232
DEMING                BB 063/092 062/093 064 21212
LORDSBURG             UU 064/092 063/093 065 21212
SIERRA BLANCA         EB 064/091 063/092 065 22222

.ELP...NONE

14 / BIRD

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-162030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AREA MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS AND LOWLANDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF ADJACENT MOUNTAINS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS.
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL MID EVENING...
EARLIER IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.  MAIN THREATS ARE HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE
REGION-WIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE AREA DRIES OUT FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT AREA MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SERVICES ARE NOT REQUIRED TODAY.

BIRD

NMZ022-162140-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
240 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2003

AT 225 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING A TIGHT
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 25 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SILVER
CITY NEW MEXICO...SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. RADAR INDICATES
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE PAST HOUR. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY IN THIS AREA.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRIVING ON
STATE HIGHWAY 15 SOUTH OF GILA HOT SPRINGS...STATE HIGHWAY 35 IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ROBERTS...AND FOREST ROAD 150...AS RUNOFF FROM
THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY BRIEFLY RUN ACROSS LOW POINTS ALONG THESE
HIGHWAYS.

DH

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-170250-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
250 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2003

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY...GIVING THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE AT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST STORMS OF THE
DAY HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE GILA..SAN ANDRES AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES IN ONE
HOUR OR LESS...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL.

NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE LOWLANDS...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS...EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO DUMP RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN ONE HOUR OR LESS. LOCAL RAINFALL APPROACHING THREE INCHES
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DH