Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
120 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2003

SYNOPSIS...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND MOISTURE COMBINE TO FORM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.   A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
EARLY TOMORROW THAT WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA RESULTING IN INSTABLE REGION FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER OVER REGIONS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY HIGHER CAPE AND THETA-E AND PW
VALUES EAST.  EXPECT MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. LATER TONIGHT AN EXPECTED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
PUSH ALL THE WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS FAR AS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.  THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
MOISTURE AND FRONT RETREAT TO THE EAST.  FOR MONDAY AND THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A
DRY AND STABLE WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               BU 068/089 066/089 065 22212
ALAMOGORDO            BB 061/087 060/085 059 22222
LAS CRUCES            BU 067/088 064/088 063 12212
CLOUDCROFT            BE 044/066 047/061 046 35332
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BU 063/089 060/083 059 12110
SILVER CITY           BU 056/082 055/076 054 01010
DEMING                UU 065/092 063/087 062 00000
LORDSBURG             UU 064/095 061/088 060 00000
SIERRA BLANCA         EB 066/080 061/084 060 23323

.ELP...NONE

04

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-051900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1015 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY.  A COUPLE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO 1-1/2 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.  OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WEST
TO THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE.  A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HUDSPETH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SERVICES MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF RIO GRANDE ESPECIALLY OVER
HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES.