Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
343 AM CDT MON APR 287 2003

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ON OUR CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FIST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOT STARTED THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.
DATA ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WAS RESULTING FROM A WEAK
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT HAD
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF KANSAS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS
TIED TO A WEAK WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. RUC MODEL OUTPUT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
HAS A CLUE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE THERE. ETA AND GFS MODELS
SEEMED TO HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH THEIR INITIALIZATION AT 00Z. ETA
DISPLAYED THE LARGEST PROBLEM WHEN IT FAILED TO ANALYZE A 10C CAP AT
700MB OVER TOP. FARTHER NORTH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD DIFFICULTIES
WITH MAKING THE SOUNDING TOO MOIST. FOR THESE REASONS I HAVE GONE
WITH A RUC LIKE SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT I SPREAD
OUR CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH NOON. I FIGURE...AS PER THE RUC OUTPUT...THAT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORNING STORMS WILL BE UP NORTH ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER. WITH THE WAVE PROGGED TO BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL HANGING
AROUND...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MIGHT PERSIST.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING OUT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA
DESPITE MY HIGH DEGREE OF MISTRUST IN THE MODEL PERFORMANCE.
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALMOST EVERYWHERE
INDICATES THAT THE LOCATION OF ANY STORMS THAT FIRE WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET LATER THIS EVENING.

A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW...FORMING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
TUESDAY...WILL LIFT OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH FOCUSING OUR BEST
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY BACK NORTH ALONG THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THEN THAT OUR SECTION OF EAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI WOULD BE DRY SLOTTED...WITH ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH
AND SOUTHEAST. I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS I CURRENTLY HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
POSITION OF THE DRY SLOT.

CUTTER

1030 PM SUN...
THE PARAMETERS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE LOOKING
LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE.  THE 00Z SOUNDINGS CAME IN WITH LESS
MOISTURE AND LESS INSTABILITY THAN 12Z AND 18Z RUNS PROJECTED.  THE
00Z TOPEKA SOUNDING WAS CAPPED SEVERELY AT 700 MB WITH A TEMPERATURE
OF 10C.  SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A DIFFUSE
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE MID LEVEL COOLING NECESSARY TO INITIATE
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WAS CONCEPTUALIZED EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST.  WE ARE STILL WATCHING THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
IS FOCUSED INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.  A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE SPROUTED UP AROUND LINCOLN THIS EVENING, BUT HAVENT
TAPPED ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING
ORGANIZED.  WITH ALL OF THIS SAID IVE BUMPED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DOWN TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.  A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.  THE ETA QPF LOOKS FAR FETCHED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR DAYBREAK OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
IT IS HAVING SOME KIND OF INSTABILITY RELEASE OR OTHER CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION PROBLEMS.

KOCH

302 PM SUN...

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND SEVERITY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME. PREFERRED THE MESO-ETA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING...IN AREA OF CONCENTRATED
UPSLOPE FLOW. AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST...THEY HAVE A CHANCE OF
BEING SEVERE WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
HIGHEST CAPES(1000-1500)...LOWEST LIFTED INDICES(-2 TO -5) AND
LITTLE CAP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE
BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE THETA-E AXIS. THINK ONLY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY. SO HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AND
RAISED THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE STORMS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP.

NRR

ON MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED OUT IN SOUTHERN
CWA AS BOTH GFS/ETA DEPICT.  SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SEQUENCE OF
EVENTS...AS LOOKS LIKE THE ETA IS TRYING TO BRING ACROSS MCS FARTHER
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND THE GFS IS DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT.  EITHER WAY...HAVE CHC POPS IN PLACE.  SHOULD SEE A
COMBINATION OF THE TWO...WITH MCS FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
SFC FRONT.  SFC FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN HAVE CHC POPS GOING.  HAVE TAPERED DOWN THE POPS
TO SLIGHTS FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AS
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
FRONT ENDS UP...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS IN ALL AREAS
FOR THESE PERIODS.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED TEMPS FOR WED DUE TO
WAA/FEWER CLOUDS.  COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING DOWN WED NIGHT AND
ACROSS CWA ON THURSDAY.  HAVE ENDED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
GFS AND ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING
THE PICTURE IN THE EXTENDED.  LOWERED CLOUDS PERCENTAGES AND ALSO
TEMPS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKY/CAA SCENARIO. NOT DRY FOR LONG...AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE ON SATURDAY.  AS THE LOW NEARS ON
SUNDAY...HAVE BROUGHT CHC OF PRECIP IN AGAIN DURING THE DAY WITH
NEXT SYSTEM.

LVQ

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
546 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE...AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI. AREAS
THREATENED INCLUDE LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS...TO
MARSHALL AND MOBERLY MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY
WHICH MIGHT BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 AM    ST JOSEPH                 MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   BUCHANAN                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0445 AM    4 W CAMERON               MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   CLINTON                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0453 AM    CAMERON                   MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   CLINTON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0513 AM    PLATTSBURG                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   CLINTON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0517 AM    HAMILTON                  MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   CALDWELL                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.