Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 19, 2003, 4:31 PM CDT for Atchison County, Missouri. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 19, 2003, 4:31 PM CDT (21:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 19, 2003, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 59 min
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Atchison County, MO
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 3:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1071 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1566 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KEAX 192131 SVREAX MOC005-192230- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO 430 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... ATCHISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PHELPS CITY...OR NEAR PERU...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PHELPS CITY...WATSON...LANGDON BY 440 PM CDT. ROCKPORT BY 450 PM CDT. TARKIO BY 510 PM CDT. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG BUILDING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL. LAT...LON 4058 9571 4031 9558 4040 9533 4059 9537 $$ NRR
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 19, 4:30 PM CDT, 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 4:30 PM CDT, 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 430 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003 INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION LEADING TO MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MISSOURI LAKE REGION NORTHWARD TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. CONVECTION ALSO FIRING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BUBBLE HIGH ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST ONLY WEAK ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL WITH ALL STORMS...BUT EXCESSIVE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...HAVE LED TO SURFACE BASED CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE REGION TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET... BUT STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL HAVE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT... SO THESE WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER. MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK IN ACTIVITY...AS THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY DISSIPATES IN THE 02-03Z TIMEFRAME. INCREASING 850MB CONVERGENT...MOIST FLOW WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OF A SAINT JOE TO BETHANY LINE. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL OF FORECAST AREA LIKELY REACHING 100 DEGREE MARK. SOME CONCERN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP...BUT STORMS PROBABLY WONT FIRE UNTIL AFT 19Z...SO TEMPS MAY JUST EAK UP TO 100 AHEAD OF FRONT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT MAY PUSH TEMPERATURES AOA 105...BUT AGAIN AM HESITANT TO BUMP TEMPS MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH RELIEF FROM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY... THUS KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR 100. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOLDOWN. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING ADDITIONAL RELIEF TO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SF 415 AM... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN WY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS ALLOWED BAND OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE FURTHER EAST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING. MAIN CONCERN OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT...AS AIRMASS ACROSS REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION OF SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. AS A RESULT 850MB TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 20S C THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL BUT KC METRO...WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. HIGH PLAINS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EJECT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD. GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING META PROGS SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN MO THURSDAY...THUS HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. SEAMAN 445 PM... WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF TODAYS WEATHER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MAKING LITTLE PROGRESS EAST. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IN EFFECT WILL DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. SOME SCATTERED STORMS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FORCING IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ONLY MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S LAST NIGHT IN THE KANSAS CITY METRO. WITH NIGHT TIME DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN AT 80 DEGREES OR MORE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE, I HAVE UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE CITY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES OCCUR...AND NIGHT TIME HEAT INDICES REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES. OUTSIDE THE METROPOLITAN AREA NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THUS HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY. KOCH IN THE EXTENDED...THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. A BRIEF COOL PUSH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AGAIN SATURDAY. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES ADVERTISED BY THE GFS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT THINK THAT THE GFS MIGHT BE TOO STRONG WITH ITS SOUTHWARD COOL PUSH AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE RETURNS TO THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE. STOFLET .EAX... KS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM FOR ZONES KS025...KSZ102. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ103>105. HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ102. HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES KSZ057...KSZ060. MO...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH 9 PM FOR ZONES MOZ001>007... MOZ011>016...MOZ020. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ028>029...MOZ037. HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ001>008... MOZ011>016...MOZ020. HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ017... MOZ021>025...MOZ030>033. HEAT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ZONES MOZ038>040... MOZ043>046...MOZ053>054.
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 19, 1:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-201100- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 100 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003 ...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND MOST OF WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV. FOSTER
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 4:14 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
KSZ025-102-MOZ001>007-011>015-020-021-200200- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO 414 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 152...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN MISSOURI: ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB... GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...NODAWAY...PUTNAM AND WORTH. IN KANSAS: ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN. SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON... BETHANY...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Special weather statement, Aug 19, 4:14 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
KSZ025-102-MOZ001>007-011>015-020-021-200200- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH NUMBER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY-PLEASANT HILL MO 414 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 872...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... IN MISSOURI: ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB... GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...NODAWAY...PUTNAM AND WORTH. IN KANSAS: ATCHISON AND DONIPHAN. SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON... BETHANY...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MAXIMUK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 7:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | EAX | Lafayette | 45 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.