Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PAM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER 70S FROM FALLS CITY THROUGH KANSAS
CITY TO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS.  TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS
HAVE REACHED THE MID 90S AND CUMULUS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING NORTH OF
TOPEKA SINCE 18Z.  A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL INITIATION EARLY THIS EVENING.  I DONT
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE WIDESPREAD SINCE CONVERGENCE IS QUITE WEAK,
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE NASTY.  DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 25F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
FREEZING LEVELS WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR AUGUST.  STORMS THAT FORM
NORTH OF TOPEKA HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRACK THROUGH KANSAS CITY
TOWARD CLINTON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AFTER TONIGHTS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.  RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND MID LEVEL WARMING WILL CUT DOWN ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY.  700MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF MISSOURI, SO ILL RETAIN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR KIRKSVILLE, SEDALIA AND MOBERLY.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DROPPING DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
BY A FEW DEGREES.

KOCH

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING FORECAST AREA
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BETWEEN UPPER TROF TO THE EAST AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...IN ESSENCE IN NO MANS LAND...INTO
SATURDAY. GFS PROGS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER TOP OF UPPER
RIDGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN
TO REGION. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK AND HARD TO BREAK
THE BACK OF A LONG DRY SPELL ONCE IT GETS TO THIS STAGE UNLESS AN
MCS TYPE SYSTEM CAN MOVE THROUGH. TILL THEN WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
AND BRING WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE CWA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE GUIDANCE AS 850 MB FLOW GOES
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SURFACE RIDGE RETREATING TO THE EAST.

MJ

1000 AM TUE...

AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
TIME FRAMES.  REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA FAILED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT TRACKED SOUTHEAST.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FEATURE TO ACT AS A
FOCUS, THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY.  BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM TOPEKA TO SPRINGFIELD WHERE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS RESIDE.  LOTS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL YIELD CAPE
VALUES IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND SURFACE CHARTS DEPICT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS.  I EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH OF TOPEKA TO
SPRINGFIELD AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY GLANCE LINN, MIAMI AND
BATES COUNTIES.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

KOCH

422 AM TUE...

CONCENTRATED ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E
AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE JET CONTINUES TO VEER.
WOULD EXPECT ONLY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA TO BE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PORTION EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA HAS A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS TOPS WARMING...SO EXPECT
THIS AREA TO ALSO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD.
THIS IS BACKED UP BY RADAR MOSAIC. NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.

EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CAP TO BE IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE SHOULD
ALSO BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AREA. HIGHEST CAPE(>1500) IS FOUND ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE IN THAT AREA. HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW NO CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE PUT 30 POPS IN FOR ONLY THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI. GFS IS
STARTING TO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...PENDING CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS.

NRR

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-052100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5 PM AND
9 PM.  SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.  THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR STORMS IS SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO
CLINTON...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF PAOLA AND BUTLER. SEVERE
STORMS COULD FORM AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SAINT JOSEPH AND KANSAS
CITY...BUT POINTS SOUTH AND WEST APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORED THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

KOCH

KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054-060200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 842...IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON...JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH...LINN...MIAMI AND WYANDOTTE.

IN MISSOURI:

BATES...CASS...CLAY...HENRY...JACKSON...JOHNSON...LAFAYETTE...
PETTIS...PLATTE AND RAY.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...
BUTLER...CLINTON...HARRISONVILLE...KANSAS CITY...OLATHE...PAOLA...
SEDALIA AND WARRENSBURG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

HUDSON