Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 4, 2003Grundy County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 4, 2003, 7:39 PM CDT for Grundy County, Missouri. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2003, 7:39 PM CDT (00:39 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Grundy County, MO

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 4, 6:20 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 3886 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

111 
WUUS53 KEAX 050039
SVREAX
MOC079-050130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
739 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 734 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
  LOCATED NEAR EDINBURG...OR NEAR TRENTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   DUNLAP BY 745 PM CDT.
   SPICKARD...GALT BY 750 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4027 9339 4006 9339 3997 9375 4025 9377
          4026 9366

$$


PB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 4, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 3:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

ONGOING TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS CWA IS RIGHT ON TARGET WITH CURRENT
FCST.  AS DRY LINE AND CENTER OF THE LOW MOVE EAST...SHOULD SEE
ACTIVITY MOVE PRETTY FAST.  AM EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z...AND OUT OF CWA COMPLETELY AROUND 06Z.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A BIG PLAYER IN NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS FORECAST.  UPPER LOW BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH FRONT WOBBLING ACROSS THS AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WED.
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER WITH NUMEROUS LITTLE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF CWA.  BY WED AFTERNOON...SURFACE FRONT
SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA AND AM EXPECTING SOME OVERRUNNING TSRA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  THIS FRONT MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.  THIS IS A BIT OF A MODEL CHANGE FROM YSTDY/S RUNS...BUT
WITH HPC/S BLESSING HAVE INTRODUCED POPS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP
SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MEANDERING AROUND THE CWA.   WILL
TRY TO KEEP SATURDAY DRY DUE TO NEXT LOW SETTING UP TO THE
WEST...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

LVQ

1010AM...
UPDATED FORECASTS TO REMOVE LAST OF WATCH.  ALSO ADDED ISOLATED
TORNADO WORDING WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RISK ACROSS ALL FOR FORECAST
AREA TODAY.

PC

215 AM...
...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AREA OF STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. MESO-ETA
300-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SEEMED TO HAVE A REASONABLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THAT. ANOTHER GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON NOSE OF 850MB JET. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER AS THE
SPEED MAX APPROACHES THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER KANSAS AND MOVE INTO MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET MEETS THE 850MB WARM FRONT.

EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WORRIED THERE MAY BE TOO MANY CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...TO GET
GOOD HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AS WELL. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH SLOWER WARMING EARLY THEN RAPID HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES STRENGTH OF THE DRY LINE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET STRONG STORMS. LIFTED INDICES ARE PROGGED TO BE
BELOW -6 WITH CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES GREATER
THAN 400 CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER STATED...THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY STORMS INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THE SPEED OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WATER ACTUALLY FALLING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

NRR

345 PM SAT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS/MO RIVER VALLEY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST. 130KT 250MB JET NOTED ON
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH...WILL ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
ACROSS IL/EASTERN MO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG RED RIVER
VALLEY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH
MONDAY...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ETA SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST
GIVEN HIGHER MODEL RESOLUTION. AS DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...TRANSPORTING RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
REGION. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADVECTION PROGGED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST KS ALONG NOSE OF 60KT LOW LEVEL
JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL ACROSS
AREA...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN ANY
STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP...RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL THREAT. CONVECTION
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE SETUP PROGGED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. SHORTWAVE BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT AMPLIFIES ACROSS REGION...WHILE 250MB JET
SPREADS OVERTOP OF 40-50KT 850MB JET...RESULTING IN VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. INITIALLY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT MCS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PROGGED TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NE...WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO...AND DRYLINE SURGES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO.  META PROG SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR...AND LONG CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
(0-3KM HELICITY >300 M2S2 IN WARM SECTOR) ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC...ESPECIALLY STORMS INTERACTING WITH WARM
FRONT OR ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT MCS...WHERE
HELICITY VALUES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF CWA BY MID-LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.

ONLY CHANGE TO GOING EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AS NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS REGION.

SEAMAN

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 12:45 PM CDT, 6 hours 54 minutes before

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  THE THREATS OF
TORNADOES...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. AREAS UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS EVENING THE FOCUS WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH THE THE PERIOD DUE TO AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE PARADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.  AT THIS TIME...MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION DEFINITELY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PC

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 4, 7:10 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0708 PM    5 SSE WARRENSBURG         MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR. REPORTED NEAR
                                          HIGHWAY Y EAST OF
                                          HIGHWAY 13.

Local storm report, May 4, 7:13 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0708 PM    EAGLEVILLE                MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

Local storm report, May 4, 7:25 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
725 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0722 PM    3 NE GARDEN CITY          MO   1 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   CASS                           REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

Local storm report, May 4, 7:32 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
732 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0621 PM    2 S MEDFORD               MO   TORNADO
05/04/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0640 PM    10 SW PATTONSBURG         MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   DAVIESS                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, May 4, 7:35 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
735 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    4 W SPICKARD              MO   1 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   GRUNDY                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

Local storm report, May 4, 7:38 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
738 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0644 PM    3 W PATTONSBURG           MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   DAVIESS                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL ON
                                          INTESTATE 35.

0705 PM    PATTONSBURG               MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   DAVIESS                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 7:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Harrison	41 min
May 4, 7:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Pettis	50 min
May 4, 7:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Johnson	27 min
May 4, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson	61 min
May 4, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Mercer	41 min
May 4, 7:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EAX	Saline	51 min
May 4, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	44 min
May 4, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay	39 min
May 4, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Daviess	54 min
May 4, 8:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	56 min
May 4, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Ray	58 min
May 4, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll	63 min
May 4, 9:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass	40 min
May 4, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Lafayette	66 min
May 4, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	43 min
May 4, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Saline	52 min
May 4, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson	60 min
May 4, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton	44 min
May 4, 10:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry	55 min
May 4, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates	31 min
May 4, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Macon	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.