Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
416 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

MCS DEVELOPED ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED BUT HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. SEE NO REASON WHY WITH WILL MOVE AND OTHER
THAN CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH RISING DEW POINTS. FAR WEST PART
OF THE CWFA MAY SEE THE CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME TSRA TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

TONIGHT NEXT MCS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE CAP ALONG THE +12 TO +13 H7
ISOTHERM. MCS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST. FAR NORTHERN THIRD OF CWFA MAY GET BRUSHED IF CONVECTION
PUSHES SOUTH ON ANY COLD POOL. TUESDAY TO BE UGLY WITH A CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. CLOSE BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR HEAT AS COMPUTED INDICES TO BE IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN ZONES. MOST OF CWFA TO REMAIN CAPPED
TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR NORTH THIRD WHICH MAY GET BRUSHED AGAIN BY
AN MCS.

DIDN/T PLAY WITH EXTENDED DUE TO LACK OF TIME. MODELS STILL PROG
FRONT TO STAGGER INTO CWFA IN THE WED/THU TIME PERIOD.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SF

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF A DYERSVILLE IOWA TO
WYACONDA MISSOURI LINE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT WOULD
DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER SUNSET ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

ON TUESDAY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES SHOULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS AND RACE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO A THREAT DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION. WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAIN IS A THREAT
FROM EACH ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK AS
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT ANY TIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0210 PM    MANCHESTER                IA   URBAN FLOODING
06/23/03   DELAWARE                       DITCHES OVERFLOWING IN
                                          TOWN. 1.5 INCHES OF
                                          RAIN IN LAST 40
                                          MINUTES.  REPORTED BY
                                          STORM SPOTTER.