Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
433 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

BAD MOISTURE DATA FROM 00Z DVN SOUNDING AFFECTING SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS. IN NEAR TERM RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SITUATION IN REGARDS TO
PRECIP AND OVERALL FORCING. PRECIP CURRENTLY OVER CWFA SHOULD MOVE
OFF AS FORCING FROM VORT MAX MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING. COLD
POOL ALOFT AND STRONGER VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TSRA TO
DEVELOP. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE WBZ HEIGHT SUGGEST HAIL
THREAT FROM TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP SHRA GOING. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO KEEP LOW SC ACROSS CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP ON THIS SYSTEM WOULD
BE IN THE SOUTH THIRD IF IT OCCURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
ENOUGH DRY AIR MAY BE PRESENT IN LOW LEVELS TO PRECLUDE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS.

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE BUSTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
BELIEVE EASTERLY FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF CWFA TODAY AND MOST OF CWFA ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SF

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING TAKING THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH IT.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP BRINGING A THREAT OF HAIL. MOST OF THE HAIL SHOULD ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO AN INCH. AFTER SUNSET THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER ANY
REPORTS OF HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn

SF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
151 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    5 E WALCOTT               IA   1 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   SCOTT                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0130 PM    GENESEO                   IL   .75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   HENRY                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0136 PM    3 E COAL VLY              IL   .88 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   ROCK ISLAND                    REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0145 PM    MUSCATINE                 IA   .75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   MUSCATINE