Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Quad Cities, IA

August 1, 2003Mercer County, Illinois

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 1, 2003, 2:47 PM CDT for Mercer County, Illinois. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2003, 2:47 PM CDT (19:47 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2003, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Mercer County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 1, 2:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1279 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -100 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1232 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

102 
WUUS53 KDVN 011947
SVRDVN
ILC131-012030-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS 3 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF MANNON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAPELLO...MOVING
  EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
   MANNON BY 250 PM CDT.
   PETERSVILLE BY 255 PM CDT.
   JOY BY 305 PM CDT.
   BUFFALO PRAIRIE BY 310 PM CDT.

AT 242 PM CDT LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL IN WESTERN 
MERCER COUNTY.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4108 9094 4108 9046 4133 9045 4133 9106
          4124 9109 4118 9101

$$

JAZ

&

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 1, 3:07 AM CDT, 11 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 3:07 AM CDT, 11 hours 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

HMMM....DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH AND THE END
RESULT IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH IS APPARENT BY THE AMOUNT OF AC THAT DEVELOPED BUT
NOW THAT IS DISSIPATING OVER WESTERN IOWA.

ALL MODELS ROTATE VORT MAXES THROUGH THE REGION WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME LIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT NOT
ALL THAT STRONG...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY. THEREFORE WILL CUT POPS TO 20-30 RANGE WITH
BETTER POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTION FOR SATURDAY A QUESTION
MARK. HOWEVER BELIEVE CYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GET SOMETHING GOING IF MODEL VORT MAX IS REAL (IT IS NOT APPARENT
IN WV IMAGERY). THUS WILL GO WITH IDEA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SF

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 4:45 AM CDT, 10 hours 2 minutes before

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-020930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR THAT
MAY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

IF SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD WOULD BE 4 PM TO
MIDNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE AREA MOST AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS MISSOURI TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LACK OF WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER IF STORMS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS EAST OF A MEMPHIS TO FREEPORT LINE.

SF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 1, 10:59 AM CDT, 3 hours 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1059 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1046 AM    FLORENCE                  IL   51 MPH TSTM GUST
08/01/03   STEPHENSON                     REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

1046 AM    FLORENCE                  IL   .5 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   STEPHENSON                     REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 2:11 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0202 PM    BRIGHTON                  IA   1 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   WASHINGTON                     PEA SIZED, UP TO
                                          QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          OCCURED FROM 1:45 UNTIL
                                          TIME OF REPORT.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 2:15 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0153 PM    WAYLAND                   IA   .5 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   HENRY                          HALF INCH HAIL.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 1, 12:54 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Carroll	51 min
Aug 1, 1:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Jo Daviess, Stephenson	60 min
Aug 1, 2:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Stephenson	55 min
Aug 1, 3:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Mercer, Rock Island	48 min
Aug 1, 3:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Putnam	53 min
Aug 1, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Henry	73 min
Aug 1, 4:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henry	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.