Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
442 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

WILL KEEP THIS SHORT DUE TO POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER TIME
CONSTRAINTS.  WARM FRONT EXTENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM A NORTHWEST
MISSOURI LOW...ALONG THE MISSOURI-IOWA LINE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MISSOURI LOW TO A SECOND
OCCLUDED LOW IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  UPPER 70S DEW POINTS HAVE
WORKED THEIR WAY NORTH TO INTERSTATE 80 ON THE IOWA SIDE.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE NEAR OTTUMWA.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS IN THE SHORT
TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING.  AFTER THAT...THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN...
BRINGING SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER SUPPORT AT THE JET LEVEL...COMBINED WITH HIGH CAPES...AND THE
FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING. MISSOURI LOW WILL MOVE TO KEOKUK THIS EVENING AS THE
MINNESOTA LOW MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA.  THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER THE SOUTHERN LOW REMAINS PRIMARY...OR IS
SUPERSEDED BY THE NORTHERN LOW.  3-HR PRESSURE FALL PATTERN DOES
NOT RESOLVE THIS QUESTION AT PRESENT.  EITHER WAY THE ADJOINING COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME. PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT
THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MOST FAVORABLE...OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IOWA...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
THE BEST CAPES.  THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...INCREASING IN
STRENGTH WITH LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS...WITH THE BEST STRENGTH
PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL.  THE STRENGTH OF THE MCS
WILL POSSIBLY INCREASING AS IT HEADS EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING.  TRIPLE POINT UNCERTAINTIES
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THRU THE
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MIDNIGHT...THUS THE
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SATURATED SOILS MANY AREAS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

REA

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
420 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2003

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
IOWA WILL ROLL EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS COMPLEX WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOUND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THERE IS ALSO A
LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS MORNING.  BY THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT.  THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.  A
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING BETWEEN HIGHWAY 34 AND INTERSTATE 80 WILL
INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A TORNADO ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING...AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS WARM
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RAINFALL
REPORTS AND FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
501 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 AM    2 SW LOWDEN               IA   LIGHTNING
07/09/03   CEDAR                          LIGHTNING STRIKE KILLED
                                          7 DAIRY COWS AND
                                          DAMAGED A HOUSE.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0612 PM    GOOD HOPE                 IL   .5 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   MCDONOUGH                      REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0629 PM    BUSHNELL                  IL   .5 INCH HAIL
07/09/03   MCDONOUGH                      RELAYED BY SPOTTER.