Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF DVN
TO SOUTH OF DSM TO NEAR OMA.  AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH LAPS CAPES JUST OVER 3000 J/KG BY 20Z.  VISIBLE SAT
IMAGE SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CU ALONG THE MO BORDER...BUT SO FAR NO
CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO TAKE OFF.  TSRA OVER NERN NE STARTING TO
INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS APROACHING S/W INTERACTS WITH
SURFACE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD EAST AND INCREASE
IN COVERGAGE AS LLJ COMES INTO PLAY BY LATE EVENING. BASED ON
CURRENT POSITION OF THE CONVECTION...E/W BOUNDARY AND E/W
OREINTATION OF MID LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERN...EXPECT AREAS NORTH OF I
80 TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
POPS.  POPS SOUTH OF I80 WERE BUMPED UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH
MODELS HOLDING STRONGER CAP WEST CWA...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED TSRA SOUTH OF THE MAIN CLUSTER. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND WILL MENTION IN ZFP. OVERNIGHT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA BTWN ALO AND DBQ WHERE HEAVIEST QPF
OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.  ONE HOUR FFG VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE AROUND
1.3 INCHES.  FURTHER SOUTH ONE HOUR FFG VALUES INCREAS TO AROUND 3
INCHES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES ATM THINKING
THAT MCS TONIGHT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AS LOW LLJ VEERS TO THE WEST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.   CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY FOR LEFTOVER MORNING CONVECTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW INDUCED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PER DAY2 OUTLOOK WILL BEEF UP WORDING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...BUT
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  FRONT SETTLES IN OVER SRN
IA/NRN MO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...KEEPING A
THREAT OF SCT TSRA OVER AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMP FORECAST WILL
BE DEPENDENT OF LOCATION OF TSRA AND RESULTING BOUNDARIES...THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER META TEMPS.

SOME UNCETAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH GFS HAVING LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT HAVE LEFT
THE CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH INTACT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY.  BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS ALONG WITH THE UKMET SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY SETTLE OVER MO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA OVER THE NRN HALF OF CWA DURING THE DAY.
00Z GFS WOUND UP A DECENT SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HOWEVER THE 06Z RUN SHOWS NO SIGN OF THIS
FEATURE.  WILL DISCOUNT THE 00Z RUN FOR NOW AND KEEP LATE WEEK DRY.

DVN...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

DLF

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
439 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.  THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF WESTERN IOWA. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 80 MPH.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPS OUT OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...THROUGH
THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DVN

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
701 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0610 PM    5 SE HOUGHTON             IA   1 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   LEE                            HAIL WAS DESCRIBED AS
                                          FLAT. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
722 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0715 PM    BIGGSVILLE                IL   .5 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   HENDERSON                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0717 PM    MONTROSE                  IA   .5 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   LEE                            REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
738 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0737 PM    4 W DONNELLSON            IA   .75 INCH HAIL
07/05/03   LEE                            REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.