Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
415 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ON LEADING EDGE OF VRY STG
THETAE ADVECTION SHOVING NNE ACRS ERN NEB INTO NW IA. THE AVN IS
DOING A VRY GOOD JOB SINCE ITS ABT THE FARTHEST W WITH THE INIT OF
PCPN. A CLOSE 2ND WITH THE RUC/MESOETA. PLENTY OF FORCING AVBL TDA
INTO TNGT AS THE SRN PTN OF THE LRG PAC MERIDIONAL TROF DEEPENS THIS
AFTN AND TNGT. MDLS ARE ALL ESSENTIALLY THE SAME WITH THE LRG SCALE
FEATURES IN THE SHORT RUN. DID NOT CHG MUCH FM THE PREV FCST. PWATS
INCR FM A HALF INCH AT 12Z TO OVR AN INCH BY 20Z. BROAD...DEEP AND
STG SW FLOW XPCD TO ALINE CONVECTION THAT AFTN AND EVENING FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD. THERE IS SOME
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL LTR TDA AS COOLING ALF SWEEPS EWD. STILL LOOKING
FOR SOME WIND TMR...BUT HOLDING BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA. STG RDGG
FOLLOWS THE TROF/S EXIT WITH WARM TMPS LIKELY BY THURSDAY. WL
PROBABLY PUSH RECORDS...BUT BEING CONSERVATIVE ATTM. THE WEEKEND WX
IS UP IN THE AIR AS MODEL RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES A LOT BE DESIRED.

&&

.DMX...NONE
&&

MYERS

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
532 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES.  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST CENTRAL
IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...AFFECTING MOST OF CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
THESE PARTICULAR STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...AND
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.  SEVERAL HOURS OF PERSISTENT
MODERATE AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ADD UP...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE
HALF TO ONE INCH ON AVERAGE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES.  THIS COULD LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING LATER TODAY OR
THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL RAINS FALL.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA.
AGAIN...HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN STREET FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
943 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 AM    FOREST CITY               IA   TSTM WND DMG
11/17/03   WINNEBAGO                      FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
                                          VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROAD.
                                          OCCURRED WITH TAIL END OF
                                          PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY
                                          DUE TO GRAVITY WAVE.

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1020 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 AM    1 NE FOREST CITY          IA   58 MPH TSTM WND GST
11/17/03   WINNEBAGO                      KIOW RADIO MEASURED WIND
                                          GUST

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