Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF DVLPMNT WITH SECONDARY CONCERN
TEMPS AND TIMING OIF FRONT.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LT AFTN/EVENING DVLPMNT
AS HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS REACHED LT IN DAY.  IN DETAILS IS WHERE
MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP.  DYNAMICAL FIELDS STRONGER IN AVN THAN
ETA THOUGH HOW MUCH IS FEEDBACK/REAL IS IN QUESTION.  LOOK AT
SOUNDINGS APPEAR ANY DVLPMNT WILL BEGIN EVELATED WITH DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
OF FNT THU NGT/FRI. HOWEVER HARD TO FORECAST WITH GREAT CERTAINY
SINCE MOST SFC FEATURES WEAK AND NOT CLEARLY DEFINED OR FOCUSED FOR
AID IN DVLPMNT/TIMING.  SERIES OF S/W PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH
SOME PICKED OUT ON STLT ATTM.  AS FNT BECOMES FOCUS OF DVLPMNT
EXPECT SQUALL LINE DVLPMNT AHEAD OF FNT THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
PSBLE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCERS WITH MODERATE CAPE GOOD
INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR.  CAPES 2000+ AHEAD OF FRONT WITH LI
-4 TO -6.  HAVE DISAPPOINTED WITH COVERAGE/AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WITH
LAST FRONT SO ETA QPF LKLY BETTER OF TWO THO SLOW MOVING STORMS IN
AUGUST COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES.

THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGH HOW HIGH IS QUESTION AS AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL LKLY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
YESTERDAYAND AREAS THAN DID NOT NEAR YESTERDAYS TEMPS.  LEANING
TOWARD MAVS WITH ETA LKLY TOO HOT WITH UPPER 90S.  PREVIOUS FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH SLOW COOL DOWN OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GUIDANCE
TEMPS WITH COMBO FWC/MAV GOOD.

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR AREAS IN CENTRAL IOWA JUST TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A HIGHER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION.  AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
EASTERN IOWA...AND MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

FORSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0539 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0423 AM    STORY CITY                IA   DOWNBURST
08/26/03   STORY                          MULTIPLE 2 FOOT DIAMETER
                                          TREES DOWN. TREE DAMAGE TO
                                          HOME AND GAS LINE.

0418 AM    1 E STORY CITY            IA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   STORY                          TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OVER
                                          AT PELLA WINDOWS ON
                                          INTERSTATE 35.

0407 AM    6 SW HUBBARD              IA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   HARDIN                         NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0405 AM    STORY CITY                IA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   STORY                          NUMEROUS TREES TO 12 INCH
                                          DIAMETER DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          KCCI TV.

0345 AM    STORY CITY                IA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   STORY                          12 INCH DIAMETER TREE
                                          DOWN.

0345 AM    STORY CITY                IA   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/26/03   STORY                          UP TO 60 MPH WIND REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

MR