Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
956 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

LTL CHG TO FCST FORTHCOMING BESIDES EXTENDING CHCS A LTL LATER IN
NRN PTNS.  TSTMS NOT DMSHG WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ENTERING MORE
UNSTABLE AMS.  02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES CDFNT ACRS NRN FA WITH CNVGNC
INCRG.  MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG INTO CNTRL IA.  ATLHOUGH SIGNATURE
NOT NOTED AT SLA...PROFILERS FARTHER S SHOWING NICE WRM ADVCTN
VEERING TWRD SRN IA WITH LATEST RUC ALSO FOCUSING H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVCTN ACRS NRN MO.  A BIT LOWER IN THE AMS...0-2KM MSTR CNVGNC ALSO
FOCUSED A BIT FARTHER N AS XPCD ALG IA/MO BORDER.  THIS ALL SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION WL PERSIST OVNGT IN ACTIVE NWLY FLOW.  SHRT WV NOTED
ENTERING NWRN IA WHICH HAS HELPED UVM AND GROWTH OF TSTMS.  DEEP
SHEAR NOT THE GREATEST AT LEAST YET...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME BRIEF
SVR WNDS WITH DECENT DOWNDRAFT CAPES...AND FCST SOUNDINGS STILL
SUGGESTING STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST ABV BNDRY LYR.  MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE PULSE HAILERS.  OTRW LTL CHGS TO FCST WHICH SEEMS
ON TRACK.

.DSM...NONE

SMALL

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT AFTER NOON.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.  THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO...MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER
WILL SINK INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY WHERE IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA.  ON SATURDAY YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST PARTS
OF CENTRAL IOWA.  TIMING DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR THOUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SPOTTERS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

FORSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0512 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0507 PM    DUNKERTON                 IA   1.75 IN HAIL
07/31/03   BLACK HAWK                     FROM BLACK HAWK COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF.  QUARTER TO GOLF
                                          BALL SIZED HAIL.

SMALL

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