Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003

FORECAST ISSUES INCLUDE PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY/TONIGHT AND
TEMPS...THEN NEXT SYSTEM TUES NIGHT.

07Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES FRONT STRETCHED FROM SE NEBRASKA/FAR SW
IA...TO NEAR DES MOINES AND DUBUQUE...AND VERY EVIDENT AS 88D FINE
LINE. CELLS STARTING TO POP ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OMAHA TO ATLANTIC
WITH 40 KT LLJ FEEDING INTO AREA. CAP HAS HELD ELSEWHERE ACRS CWA.
OTHER CELLS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST NE...AND MEAN WIND WOULD SUGGEST
THESE WILL STAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. GOING 30/40 POPS FOR
TODAY IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN SRN IA. 06Z META HAS
PICKED UP ON CURRENT CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO FAR NORTH WITH
QPF AXIS AND OVERDONE WITH AREAL COVERAGE. I EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A LULL AND
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR FIELDS
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK...SO SVR NOT A CONCERN. COULD GET DECENT RAINS
OUT OF A FEW STORMS...BUT FFG IS VERY HIGH AND WL TAKE SOME VERY
INTENSE RAIN TO INDUCE FLASH FLOODING...DOESNT LOOK LIKELY. STABLE
AIRMASS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND
06Z META DRIVES PRECIP SOUTH OUT OF THE STATE EVEN FASTER TONIGHT.
WL HANG ON TO LOW POP IN FAR SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TIMING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WED...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN H5 LOW AND PRECIP FIELDS. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO COVERAGE OF POPS...WITH EMPHASIS ON NE HALF OF
CWA. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WED NIGHT THRU FRI.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY IS QUITE CHALLENGING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A RATHER WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH AND THE BOUNDARY IS MAKING DECENT
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. WL STAY AROUND A CATEGORY BELOW WARMEST END OF
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTH...TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. WL
FOLLOW BLEND OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.DSM...NONE

KINNEY

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
520 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL
IOWA THIS MORNING. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM SAC CITY...TO INDIANOLA...TO CENTERVILLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION TODAY...ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.

&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

KINNEY