Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
500 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. SAME PATTERN OVER
AREA...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO MOST PERIODS.

MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE
CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST IOWA HAS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NEB WHICH SHOULD ALSO AFFECT IOWA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH BEST
CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER SW IA IN REGION OF NOW UNCAPPED CAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG. THIS AREA IS ON EDGE OF WEAK TO MODT DEEP LAYERED
SHEER BUT LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT WHILE THIS AREA
LOOKS BEST AT MOMENT FOR SFC CONVECTION...HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
SHOULD ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN STRONG ELEVATED THETA-E
ADVECTION FIELD FROM NORTHEAST NEB TO WEST CENTRAL AND NW IA. THIS
AREA ALSO IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS AREA
WILL BECOME FOCUS FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON SW H850 JET OF 40 KTS
WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME BACK BUILDING ECHOS AND HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. DOES LOOK LIKE LATER ON TONIGHT LINEAR MCS SHOULD BECOME
MORE OF A WIND THREAT.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY OVER THE E/NE
WITH PCPN SHUTTING DOWN AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ADVECT NE OVER THE
AREA. THESE WARMER CAPPING TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONGER SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH ALL OF THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WEDS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. MODELS DO DEPICT SOME
WEAKER WAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE VERY
SUSPECT.

.DSM...NONE

JAW

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR DENISON TO
PERRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 AM WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...BEFORE THE STORMS
DIMINISH AFTER MID MORNING.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IMPACTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 AFTER 9 OR 10 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS. NORTHERN IOWA COULD ALSO SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL...AND LOCALLY HIGHER...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. CENTRAL IOWA WILL REMAIN
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL IOWA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20...AND
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0319 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 AM    N JANESVILLE              IA   65 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/05/03   BREMER

1253 AM    GRUNDY CENTER             IA   65 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/05/03   GRUNDY                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1248 AM    DELOIT                    IA   0.88 IN HAIL
07/05/03   CRAWFORD                       REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          OFFICIALS.

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0336 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 AM    GARWIN                    IA   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   TAMA                           TREES DOWN IN PARK.

1110 PM    3 N POMEROY               IA   0.88 IN HAIL
07/04/03   POCAHONTAS

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0614 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    9 SW GREENFIELD           IA   1.75 IN HAIL
07/05/03   ADAIR                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
0617 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    BRIDGEWATER               IA   0.88 IN HAIL
07/05/03   ADAIR                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

BF