Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AM OVER NRN IA WL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING.  CONVECTION OVER NEB SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE CWA.  NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED THIS AM AS LLJ WEAKENS.
ETA/GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT FAST WITH THIS
FEATURE DUE TO WIND FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK A BIT MORE NE THAN E.  AT ANY RATE FRONT SHOULD BE INVOF
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS
ALREADY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND TIMING I EXPECT TO SEE
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.  COULD SEE
ISOLATED TORNADOES NE WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE BETTER.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES END
AND TEMPS DROP ABOUT 20 DEGREES  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT OUR CWA HAS NOT SEEN THE KIND OF
RAINS THAT FELL W AND N SO NO FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS YET THOUGH WE
WILL MONITOR.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHERWISE.  THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WAA DEVELOPS AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE.

.DSM...NONE

FAB

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-261100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TODAY IS VERY
UNSTABLE SO AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  TWO LINES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON.  A SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCAL FLOODING.  THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
IN CITY AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON
SATURDAY.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIR OVER CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  IT IS TOO SOON TO EVALUATE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS ON SATURDAY BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DMX (ALL LOWER
CASE).

MS JUN 03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1125 AM    2 S HUDSON                IA   65 MPH TSTORM WIND
06/25/03   BLACK HAWK

BF