Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
110 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND SHOWERS
TOMORROW.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CANADIAN SYSTEM HEADED OUR
WAY...ETA FASTER AND A BIT WEAKER THAN GFS...BUT FINAL FCST PRODUCT
NOT MUCH AFFECTED BY THESE DIFFERENCES.

VIGOROUS S/WV MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND PVA ALREADY INTO
NRN MN...HELPING TO SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS S/WV MOVES THROUGH AND ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES FURTHER WITH HEATING.

KEPT SHOWERS IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BIT OF SUNSHINE
WE COULD SET OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE 5H COLD AIR
ADVECTON. SFC COMPUTED LIS OFF THE ETA GO DOWN TO -4 MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES REMEAIN VERY LOW.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL IN THE SAME BALL PARK AND REASONABLE.

.DLH...NONE.

CC

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-211230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

MELDE