Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
156 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2003

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD
FRONT.  FRONT IS CURRENTLY FROM BAUDETTE TO FARGO.  STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ELEVATED...SO MAIN THREAT RIGHT NOW IS HAIL.  EXPECT
STORMS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND SHOW MORE ROTATION AS FRONT
APPROACHES...SBCAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS AROUND
30 M/S ALONG THE FRONT.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA) BY
06Z...FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 09Z. SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS THE STORMS LOSE THEIR
SURFACED BASED ENERGY.  WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR BY
MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.  CLEAR SKIES FOR THIS PERIOD... EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CU OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  CHILLY NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE 40S.

NEXT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY.  RETURN FLOW FOR THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE RETURNS FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WHERE A POSSIBLE MCS MAY FORM.

.DLH...NONE.

KFM

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-171230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
736 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

BERDES