Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2003

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PROBLEMS.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND KEEP THEM CLEAR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY.  THE
WAVE MODELS...WHICH WE AGREE WITH...ARE FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT FOR THE COOL AIR TO BUCK...
VORTICIES RISE...TENDING TO PUT CYCLONIC CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO THERE SHOULD BE NO REASON FOR THE TROUGH TO BE SLOW.

SO...WE BRING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
MAINTAIN THEM ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT THE CHANCE
LEVEL...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SPC GIVES OUR WHOLE AREA A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEDNESDAY...BUT WE NOTE THAT THE STABILITIES ARE LOWER FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL MN WESTWARD. IF THE SLOWER GRID MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH
THE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT REACH OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING IS OVER...MITIGATING SEVERE WEATHER. WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RAINFALL.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...MID-RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER COLD LAKE
SUPERIOR.  RISING HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL INDEED OCCUR.  THE FIRST SUCH
HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY...THE GRID MODELS ARE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
THIS AND THEY ARE USUALLY MUCH BETTER IN HANDLING THESE LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HUDSON BAY SITUATIONS.  A WEAK TROUGH MAY TRY TO CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGH HEIGHTS...HIGH AND RISING STABILITY IN THE
COLUMN...AND LOW LEVEL MARITIME AIR...WE DON/T EXPECT THE TROUGH TO
MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE.  ANOTHER LAKE SUPERIOR HIGH...ANCHORED BY THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD WATER...SHOULD AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF SUNDAY.

WITH THIS PATTERN...WE TENDED DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ANYWHERE NEAR THE BIG LAKE
WHERE THE WINDS WILL STOP TENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN TO
FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOONS.

.DLH...NONE.

EOM

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-151230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
430 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THEN ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FIRST AFFECT
KOOCHICHING...ITASCA...CASS...CROW WING...AITKIN AND SAINT LOUIS
COUNTIES...THEN POINTS FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
0727 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0726 PM    BALSAM                    MN   0.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   NORTHERN AITKIN

SHIMON

MNZ010-018-026-150135-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
805 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TORNADO WATCH #744 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM FOR KOOCHICHING
AND ITASCA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
DIMINISHED OVERALL.

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
0857 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0757 PM    CHISHOLM                  MN   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/14/03   WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS         SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

SHIMON

MNZ025-033>036-038-WIZ006-007-150240-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
908 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TORNADO WATCH #746 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR CASS...CROW
WING...AITKIN...PINE...BURNETT...AND WASHBURN COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING HAIL TO ONE INCH IS STILL POSSIBLE.

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT : CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
0925 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0757 PM    CHISHOLM                  MN   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/14/03   WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS         SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

0726 PM    BALSAM                    MN   0.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   NORTHERN AITKIN

0724 PM    12 N BOVEY                MN   1.00 IN HAIL
07/14/03   NORTHEAST ITASCA

0615 PM    OUTING                    MN   1.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   NORTHERN CASS

0534 PM    7 SW LONGVILLE            MN   1.25 IN HAIL
07/14/03   NORTHERN CASS

0527 PM    INDUS                     MN   2.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   KOOCHICHING

0526 PM    INDUS                     MN   1.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   KOOCHICHING

0518 PM    INTERNATIONAL FALLS       MN   1.00 IN HAIL
07/14/03   KOOCHICHING

SHIMON

MNZ011-012-019>021-037-WIZ001-150335-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

TORNADO WATCHES 746 AND 747 THAT WERE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
SAINT LOUIS...COOK...LAKE...CARLTON AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE EXPIRED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL TO DIME
SIZE IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

MELDE