Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
235 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2003

SFC TROF RUNS N-S THRU NORTH CNTRL WI. LINGERING SHWRS CONTINUE FOR
FAR ERN ZONES, BUT EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THEM OUT OF THE AREA BY ZONE
TIME. SO WE WILL NOT MENTION THEM. OLD OUTFLOW BNDRYS COULD SPARK
ISOLD SHWRS, BUT DONT THINK ITS WORTH MENTIONING ATTM. ANOTHER
SIMILAR BATCH OF COOLER TOPS IS FLOATING THRU THE MN ARROWHEAD,
PROBABLY DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN FGFS AREA.

HIGH PRES SETTLING IN TDA WITH AN 850 COOL POOL ALG THE CAN BDR.
CU RULE FIEDLS INDICATE THAT AREA AND NWRN WI COULD HAVE A THICK
CU FIELD TDA. ITS PSBLE TO GET A FEW SPRINKLES, BUT WILL NOT
MENTION ATTM.

NEXT WX ISSUE WILL BE WED AFTN. THE PTN SHIFTS ARND PRETTY QUICKLY,
AND WAA ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE DAKS AND NWRN MN. THE 850 TEMPS GO
FROM ABOUT 10 C TDA TO 18 ON WED. THE WAA SETS UP A WM FNTL BNDRY
THAT CUTS ACRS THE NWRN CORNER OF THE MN CWA. DEW PTS IN THE 60-65
DEG RANGE RETURN WHICH PRODUCE CAPE OF 1000 J/KG AND -6 LI VALUES
FOR WED AFTN. THE 700 MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 10C AT THAT TIME
ACCORDING TO THE ETA. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE FNTL ZONE WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR AFTN CONVECTION. ALTHO THE POPS WERE PULLED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLIER, WE FELT COMPELLED TO REINTRODUCE THEM UP THERE.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA, WE DID NOT MENTION PCPN. IT WOULD LIKELY BE A
NOCTURNAL EVENT.

KEPT THE EXISTING TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART WHICH ARE A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ETA. ETA WAS USED AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE HERE.

.DLH...NONE.

CS

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-151230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND NOON
AND REACH THE MINNESOTA WISCONSIN BORDER AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, THE STORMS WILL REACH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF RELIEF...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

CS