Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT.

DESPITE SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY...THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS IS TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT TO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL SIDE WITH THE ETA FOR THE DETAILS...
AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE UPCOMING
RAINFALL EVENT. ETA ALSO HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA. ONLY BIG CHANGE WILL BE TO TONE DOWN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND THE RESULTANT WINDS.

MANY PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...POSSIBLY IN AREAS WHERE THEY HAVE JUST RECEIVED A
HEFTY AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. STRONG WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING 60 KT LLJ WILL COMBINE
WITH FORCING FROM A SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
GROW NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AND WE WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE CONVECTION FROM MCS/S DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST RIDE IN
HERE LATER IN THE NIGHT. HPC STATED THAT SOME PLACES MAY RECEIVE IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE
VAST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION. PW VALUES POOL TO OVER 2 INCHES BY LATER TONIGHT...SO
DEFINITELY NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE. CONVECTION TO OUR S/W WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED BY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND DIVERGENCE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE TENDENCY TO TRAIN...IN
THE FLOW PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT OUT TO OUR WEST. UPDATED EARLIER
TODAY TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SO WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE THIS. WILL ALSO ADD THE
MENTION OF SEVERE FOR TONIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION AND THE INSTABILITY.

COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PCPN FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL GIVE THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO DESTABILIZE
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SEVERE
STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
EARLY. TEMPS THEN COOL DOWN AND DRY AIR MOVES IN FOR THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK.

.DLH...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

DAP

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-251230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ARRIVING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING TONIGHT...
THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FROM
THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH THAT STARTS TONIGHT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND IN EXTREME
WESTERN AREAS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

DAP