Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE INVOLVES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID WEEK AND THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.

MODELS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT...THE AVN IS FASTER WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN THE MODELS
CONVERGE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE ETA WAS USED FOR MOST OF FORECAST
SINCE IT WAS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH CANADIAN AND NGM. ALSO...WITH
UPPER FLOW GETTING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...
THINK THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS BETTER.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TODAY...DUE TO CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON 25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB WINDS. LAPS SHOWS
SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 FOR MOST AREAS...NOT TOO LOW SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN MINNESOTA.

TONIGHT...250MB JET MAX TO CREATE INCREASED DIVERGENCE IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS TO OCCUR NEAR THETA-E MAX AT 850MB AND
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 12Z WERE AROUND 1.3
INCHES...AND FORECAST TO RISE SLIGHTLY TO 1.5 INCHES. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S. WILL GO WITH LIKELY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ABOUT WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA TONIGHT GIVEN GOOD LIFT AND
MOISTURE. SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBILE...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AS INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFFECTS WESTERN CWA.
INSTABILITY ALSO MORE FAVORABLE WEST. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LACKING
EAST...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT EAST HALF...BUT INCREASING
TO AROUND 40 KT WEST.

SURFACE BOUNDARY TO REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

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