Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

MAIN CONCERN IS SVR THREAT THIS AFTN AND EVE. CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
FIRING ALG DIFF HTG AND SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE...PRBLY THE WFNT...JUST
S OF OUR CWA. LAPS ALSO SHOWS AN W-E AXIS IN THIS AREA OF -4 TO -6
LI/S AND SFC BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 2800 J/KG. IN THE BROADER
VIEW...ETA SHOWING MAX INSTABILITY VALUES REMAINING S OF OUR
CWA...ALTHO AN AXIS OF LOWER VALUES EXTENDS NWD INTO CN ALG SFC
TROF. ANOTHER FACTOR IS MID/HIGH LVL CLD CVR OVR MOST OF THE AREA
WHICH WILL LIMIT SFC HTG. SEE SWODY1 AND MESO DISC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...LOOKS LIKE OUR SRN ZONES HAVE BEST CHC OF
SVR...ALTHO ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING 1ST
PD. CURRENT GRIDS DEPICT THIS PRETTY WELL...AND NO SIG CHGS
ANTICIPATED ATTM. HIGH PRESS MOVES THRU ON WED...WITH RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING AGN WED NITE AHD OF STRONG S/WV...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
RETURNING BY THU. NO CHGS PLANNED BEYOND WED. MODELS QUITE SIMILAR
WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES...SO NO REAL PREFERENCE NOTED. TWEAKED A
FEW TEMPS...BUT NO SIG CHGS. AIRMASS CHGS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AS
WE MOVE TWRD FALL...BUT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON IT.

.DLH...NONE.

04

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-261230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
730 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A WARM AND COLD FRONT WILL CONVERGE ON THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
NORTHLAND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

MELDE