Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2003

FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEVERITY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND I USED A BLEND OF THE ETA AND AVN FOR
THIS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LITTLE GOING ON AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS GO. VORT MAX
ACCORDING TO RUC AND VERIFIED BY WATER VAPOR IS IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. FLAT CU OR SOME WAVE CLOUDS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SEEN ON AREA RADARS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY...
VERIFIES A LID IS IN PLACE. 18Z MPX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THIS.
INTERNATIONAL FALLS SOUNDING SUGGESTS UPPER 80S WILL BREAK ANY CAP
AND LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THIS. VWP FROM KDLH AND KMPX SHOW LOW
LEVEL FLOW 3-5K OF 30-35 KTS AND 40KT AROUND 10K. ALSO...RUC
INDICATES 850MB THETA-E RIDGE UP ALONG MN/WI BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...
SHIFTING INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING.

SOME SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...AND EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN
SOON...AS CONTINUED HEATING AND VORT MAX WILL COMBINE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHERE THETA-E RIDGE AND LIFT
FROM VORT MAX OCCUR. ALSO...BETTER SHEAR IS IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER WEST...VORT MOVES EAST BUT TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
MOVING QUICKLY EAST WITH STORMS FIRING ON IT. ANOTHER VORT MAX IN
NORTHEAST MT WILL CRUISE EAST.

WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN CWA...BUT KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL NIGHT ACROSS CWA.

FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 KT IN EASTERN MN
AND WESTERN ND.

USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ETA MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

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