Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
332 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

DAYS 1-2...

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSTORM
CHANCES...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE WY-CO
BORDER AND HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NORTHEAST OF HAYS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG AND EAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LIES NE-
SW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. FINALLY, CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER CO AND IS MOVING EASTWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
BUMP POPS TO CHC CATEGORY ACROSS THE CWA TO COVER ALL POSSIBILITIES
FOR TONIGHT.

THE 500MB COLD POOL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX BEGINS TO
SPILL INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE WAVE KICKS
OUT, CREATING A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON
WITH LIFTED INDICES IN THE -3 TO -6 RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY. FOR NOW WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING
FORECAST AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NORTH WHERE THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE. ACTIVITY
MAY LAST WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY, CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES MAY BE LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS
ACTIVITY AND AT THIS POINT COULDNT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. BY EVENING, NVA SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE MAY SQUASH CONVECTION SOMEWHAT. WILL LEAVE 20
POPS IN FOR NOW, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED IF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT.

FOR TEMPS, DID ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO THE GRIDS, OTHERWISE LEFT
GOING FORECAST AS IS.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST.  KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS WESTERN HALF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE
LEE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE BACK WEST.  ALSO, EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT POPS FOR LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A BIT MORE EAST, TO
BETTER MATCH THE SURROUNDING WFOS.  THE LATEST AND GREATEST ECMWF
IS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GFS, THE 120 HOUR AVN, AND THE 84
HOUR ETA, BRINGING AN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST FROM OLD MEXICO
INTO COLORADO BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS SEEMS QUICK TO BRING AN
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE PLAINS
BY MONDAY, BUT PREFER THE LESS AMPLIFIED, SLOWER ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MOVED OUT.
SO, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DRY AND HOT.  HARD
TO SAY WHICH AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARMEST, BUT THINK SAT-SUN-MON
WILL ALL SEE UPPER 90S TO 100-103 IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 70 99 68 97 / 30 20 20 20
GCK 68 97 66 96 / 30 20 20 20
EHA 67 95 65 97 / 30 20 20 20
LBL 69 98 65 97 / 30 20 20 20
HYS 71 100 70 97 / 30 30 30 20
P28 72 101 72 99 / 30 20 20 20

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

27/12

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-191000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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