Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE PLACEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES
AND RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMP/PRECIP PATTERNS. TODAYS MESOETA AS USUAL
APPEARS TO MIX OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRINGS SOUTH WINDS
BACK TO WESTERN KANSAS TOO QUICK. BELIEVE THE MM5/AVN SOLUTION IS
BETTER WITH THERMAL LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
REALLY HOT AIR TO THE SOUTH. I AM STILL NERVOUS ABOUT THE +17C 700MB
TEMPS AT RIW/DEN THIS MORNING. IF WE DO MANAGE TO MIX OUT ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA STATE LINE IT WOULD BE BETWEEN 105 AND 110F MONDAY. MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN NOCTURNAL STORMS TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAP FROM HYS-P28. WILL CARRY 30% POPS FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THE NEXT IMPORTANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE MONDAY NIGHT AS
AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 700MB HOT PLUME.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. ANYTHING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST IN THE HOT PLUME SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER DAYTIME HEATING /SURFACE
CONVERGENCE CAN OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO,
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MESOETA WOULD SUGGEST, BUT
WARMER THAN THE AVN/NGM. USED THIS MORNINGS LOWS AS A MINIMUM
THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS SINCE THE MOISTURE WILL BE GOING
NOWHERE. P28 ONLY GOT DOWN TO 74 THIS MORNING AND SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE 70 DEWPOINTS THERE.
WENT A LITTLE COOLER FOR HYS AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF AN
MCS.

DAYS 3-7...

GFS/ECMWF/UKMET CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MID TO LATTER
PARTS OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST OUT TO DAY 7.  HARD TO
PINPOINT AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR EAST THE UPPER RIDGE MIGHT MOVE.  IF THIS SIGNAL
PERSISTS, MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR TSRA TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

FINCH/GERARD

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 70 96 70 93 /  0  0 20  0
GCK 68 96 66 93 /  0  0 20  0
EHA 68 96 68 94 /  0  0 20  0
LBL 69 98 69 93 /  0  0 20  0
HYS 71 93 66 90 / 30  0 30  0
P28 75 95 74 93 / 30  0 30  0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-041000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE.  THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS, ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THIS AREA AFTER 8 AM
CDT.  OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS SLIGHT.  EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING THROUGH 8 AM CDT IN THE HAYS,
LA CROSSE, LARNED, SAINT JOHN, PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

BURKE