Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
221 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY
AND TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW MOVING THRU NORTHWEST MO, NORTHEAST KS, AND
EASTERN IA HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO EAST
OF SALINA. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS AND WILL MISS OUR AREA TO THE EAST. A CU
FIELD DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF HLC AND THIS ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MAY CLIP OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, STORMS HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL AND WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ALONG A FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHEAST NE WITH SOME HELP FROM A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTHEAST TO LOWEST
POPS SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
TOMORROW BUT ITS EXACT POSITION IS UP IN THE AIR AS IT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THIS MAKES THE PRECIP AND
TEMP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW TRICKY. IF THE FRONT HANGS UP IN THE
CWA, TEMPS COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK OR HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL BASE POPS AND TEMPERATURES ON THAT. WILL GO LOW 90S NORTH TO
UPPER 90S SOUTHEAST AS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
FRONTAL POSITION WILL AFFECT THIS FORECAST, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

FOR SATURDAY, LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.

DAYS 3-7...

DID NOT ADJUST GOING GRIDS MUCH.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  NUMEROUS S/WS EVIDENT
ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THINK THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TSRA AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 67 96 65 91 / 30 20 20 30
GCK 66 95 63 90 / 30 00 00 30
EHA 66 97 66 90 / 20 30 30 30
LBL 68 97 67 91 / 20 30 30 30
HYS 66 90 63 90 / 50 20 00 30
P28 71 99 67 93 / 40 30 30 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

27/15

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS PRIMARILY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 5 PM AND MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS, OF
WHICH SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH, WILL REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM WAKEENEY TO HAYS AFTER
3 PM, THEN WILL REACH THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR FROM CIMARRON TO
DODGE CITY TO SAINT JOHN AFTER 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    1W VICTORIA               KS   1.75 IN HAIL
07/31/03   ELLIS                          PUBLIC REPORT.

LACY