Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...TRANQUIL EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN NEAR
TERM AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION WILL SHARPEN AND EXTEND
NORTHWARD OVER CYS FORECAST AREA WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS.
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NONDESCRIPT SO WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS EVENING OTHERWISE
TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES. SUN WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE 80S AT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SUN AFTERNOON...AND WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LURKING ABOUT...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...A TROF ALOFT REMAINS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE PAC NW
COAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER AND EAST OF THE CYS CWA. THE
HEMISPHERIC ANOMALIES SUPPORT THIS ANCHORING WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
DRIFT TOWARD WEEK/S END.  SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARM WITH
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES OVR THE CWA. BELOW NORMAL PCPN
WATER AMOUNTS WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY
ISOLD PM TSTMS. SUN LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY IN FCST PERIOD...
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD ACROSS THE CWA. A SHORT WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO
MOVE INTO THE RIDGE BY LATE MON INTO TUE FOR AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
PM TSTMS. PCPN WATER AMOUNTS AGAIN INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL MON AND
TUE WITH PM INSTABILITY INTENSIFYING. TUE COULD SEE A RETURN OF
INTENSE SCT PM TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
REPEAT OF TUESDAY WITH STRONG SCATTERED PM TSTMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER THE PAC NW  AFTER MID WEEK WITH A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW IN CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD REINFORCE THE
MOISTURE OVER WYOMING FOR SCATTERED TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS WELL. A TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN FOR THE CYS CWA.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

WTP/JMR

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-151145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1039 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY AND MORE STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THEREFORE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND THEY WILL NOT BE INTENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OTHER DAYS...THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS INTENSE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.