Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
245 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS DVLPG OVER PARTS OF CWA AHEAD OF UPPER TROF
APPROACHING AREA FROM SW.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER TROF MOVES INTO COLORADO INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE
OVER ERN COLORADO/WRN KS.  SOME SNOW POSS MAINLY MTNS LATER TONIGHT
WITH A MIX OVER S CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THICKNESSES LOWER...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO HIGHER PEAKS.  SYSTEM SWINGS BY
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CHC FOR SHWRS AND A FEW TSTRMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME SFC UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH BEST CHC OVER
WRN AND NRN PARTS OF CWA. TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THURSDAY WITH
CLOUDCOVER AND NWLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM...700 MB TEMPS SAT-MON PLUNGE TO -4 TO -6C WITH A COUPLE
DEGS COLDER VALUES AT 12 UTC/6 AM SUN...WINTERLIKE VALUES IF MODELS
VERIFY. ETA VALUES ONLY A HAIR LESS PESSIMISTIC THAN GFS.  ETA
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SWINGING UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI
NIGHT...AT 12 UTC SAT GFS HAS LOW OVER CENTRAL CO WHILE ETA/S
LOW STILL IN SOUTHEAST UT. GFS HAS SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF OVER NORTHEAST
CO LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT...SPILLING INTO SOUTEAST WY/NEB
PANHANDLE. GFS INDICATES ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT NEXT
TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN EVEN MORE DEVELOPED STORM MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN BETWEEN MAIN EVENTS...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH
LINGERING CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERY QPF.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

RE/COX

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-081130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1035 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW STORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE COULD GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR THE WEEKEND...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS
AS YET ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.  IN
WYOMING THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.  ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WCJIN-WYSE-WYNE