Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
217 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SHORT TERM...PRETTY TRANQUIL PATTERN TONIGHT AND WED AS AXIS OF
SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER CYS FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL INDUCE LOW AND MID
LEVEL RETURN FLOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AS THE WEAK SURFACE BASED UPSLOPE USHERS IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL OMIT POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SEEM UNLIKELY IN DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WED WILL GET PRETTY WARM
AND SHOULD REACH THE 90S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 80S IN THE
LARAMIE VALLEY. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON COULD POP OFF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE LACK OF ANY TRIGGER WARRANTS ONLY LOW
POPS.

LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES OR FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  12Z MODELS DIFFER SOME ON MOVEMENT EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT APPROACHES AND
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE ETA BEING A BIT FASTER.
HOWEVER THE 12Z RUN IS AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE 06Z RUN...WHICH WAS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN.  EARLIER PREEPD FROM NCEP FAVORED THE
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE 06Z RUNS.  THE FASTER MOVEMENT WILL TEND TO
PRODUCE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT AND ALLOW THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE CWA MORE QUICKLY.  THAT BETTER
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY PER THE GFS
AND SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.  UNTIL
THEN THE MODELS DEPICT LIGHT QPF OVER THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE CWA
AS WELL AS THE FAR SOUTH WYOMING PORTION.  THIS ACTUALLY LOOKS
REASONABLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
SLOWLY INCREASE JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND MAY CATCH THE FAR SOUTH PART
OF THE CWA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.  THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THE ETA HAS MORE QPF OVER THE CWA THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HIGHER ON THE GFS.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

JMR/WEILAND

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-061130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1044 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY...AND LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE, WY
558 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    BUSHNELL                  NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/05/03   KIMBALL

GRIFFITH