Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
140 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADD SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND ENHANCE WORDING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.

******************************************************************
CURRENT RADAR LOOP...AS WELL AS 09Z SREF DATA...SUGGESTS INCREASING
POPS TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...PREV FCST STILL ON
TRACK. S/WV PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...THEN COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM GRT LKS TONIGHT.

FITZGERALD

***************** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW *********************

LAST OF THE VERY MILD NIGHTS FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
THE CURRENT AREAS OF ALTO CU...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S TO
L70S...THE RESULT OF WEAK LLVL THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE WEST.

LEFT EXIT REGION OF A RATHER STRONG 250 HPA JET (90 KT) WILL NOSE
INTO WRN PENN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...THIS DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SHOULD
LEAD TO NUMEROUS TSRA (LIKELY OCCURRING IN 2 OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS).
ONE LINE WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS CENTRAL PENN (FROM KELM TO KUNV AND
KAOO) DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECOND AND PERHAPS 3RD
SHORTER LINES OCCURRING WITH THE LAKE BREEZE/COLD FRONT...AND MAX
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS POINT TWD THE WESTERN MTNS FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SVR
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

POPS TDY RANGE FROM HIGH CHC  ACROSS THE SE...TO LIKELY (60-70 POPS)
OVER CENTRAL AND WRN PENN. SFC COLD FRONT SLIDING SE ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (MAINLY SOUTH WHERE BETTER LLVL CAPES WILL
BE).

FOR SUNDAY...ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BENEATH THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH AXIS (-10 TO -12C 500 HPA TEMPS) CENTERED
OVER PENN TO BRING 20-30 POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF PENN. SFC DEWPOINTS DONT REALLY DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL LATER SUNDAY (NW)...AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SHARP
POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE...AND GIVE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BASED ON ENSEMBLE
MOS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HARRISBURG     85 68 83 62 / 50 50 30 10
WILLIAMSPORT   83 64 82 58 / 70 40 20 10
BRADFORD       76 57 75 52 / 70 40 20 10
JOHNSTOWN      77 60 75 55 / 70 50 20 10
ALTOONA        81 63 78 56 / 50 50 30 10
STATE COLLEGE  82 62 79 57 / 70 40 20 10
SELINSGROVE    84 66 82 60 / 50 50 30 10
LANCASTER      85 66 83 61 / 50 50 30 10
YORK           84 65 83 63 / 50 50 30 10

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SPS (SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK) CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
502 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL LEAD TO RATHER NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

WINDS FIELDS SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABOVE GROUND WILL BE STRONGER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
HIGHER CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-045-161945-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1119 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL HELP CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ALONG...AND WEST OF LINE EXTENDING FROM COUDERSPORT TO STATE
COLLEGE TO BEDFORD.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER DUSK...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

KF

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-037-041-042-045-046-162300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

CAMERON...CLEARFIELD...ELK...MCKEAN...NORTHERN CLINTON...NORTHERN
LYCOMING...POTTER...SOUTHERN CLINTON...SOUTHERN LYCOMING...
SULLIVAN...TIOGA AND WARREN.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

REMEMBER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.