Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2003

WEAK SFC TROUGH AND MID LVL THERMAL FIRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIG SHOW WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WRN ZONES...AS THE SQUALL LINE OVER EXTREME WRN
LAKE ERIE AND NW OHIO RACES TO THE EAST AT AROUND 35 KTS.

WENT FOR HIGH CHC (40-50) POPS CENTRAL ZONES AND LAURELS...TO LIKELY
POPS FOR THE NW MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE TRIMMING POPS TO
LESS THAN 15% FOR ALL BUT THE WRN MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH
DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65 AND 70F AND EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT.

A THIRD DAY IN ROW...HOT AND STICKY DAY IS ON TAP FOR
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA
EXPECTED. 12Z ETA SHOWS A CURIOUS FEATURE...LIKELY ANOTHER MCS
SLIDING EAST ALONG/JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LLVL THETA-E MAX
SITUATED ACROSS THE MID/UPR OHIO VALLEY.

GFS SHOWS THIS AREA OF STRONGER LVLL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UVVEL
TO MOVE INTO THE NW MTNS VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. BASED
ON THE SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF ANY MCS REMNANTS...I WILL
BROADBRUSH THE WRN/NW MTNS WITH CHC POPS FOR VERY LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED 15-20 POPS ELSEWHERE.

FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPORARILY SWEEPING OUT THE MUGGY AIRMASS. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO 60 TO 65 ACROSS THE SOUTH.

FCSTID =    9
MDT   70  93  68  89 /  20  40  30  10
IPT   69  92  66  86 /  40  40  40  10
BFD   63  83  59  78 /  60  50  40  10
JST   63  86  60  78 /  50  40  40  10
AOO   66  89  63  82 /  40  40  30  10
UNV   68  91  65  85 /  40  40  40  10
SEG   69  92  67  87 /  30  40  30  10
LNS   70  93  68  88 /  20  30  30  10
THV   69  93  67  87 /  20  30  30  10

.CTP...
PA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-042000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
206 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A POTENT DISTURBANCE SLIDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWEEP A
LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED STRAIGHT LINE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE SIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

KL/BCL/DO/CS

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-050000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

A DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO TRIGGER SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE PORTION
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM TO THE EAST OF A
LINE FROM WELLSBORO...TO LOCK HAVEN...AND STATE COLLEGE.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM ANY STORM WILL BE STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. BRIEF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON THIS HOLIDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE
AT...WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

LAMBERT/ONDREJIK