Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2003

.UPDATE...

HAVE BEEN SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING ISSUING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON TO COVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS PRECIP AREA MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST PA LATE THIS MORNING.  AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...THE
CHANCES OF ACTUALLY PRODUCING ADVISORY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IS
RATHER SMALL AND DONT REALLY WANT IT UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
HOWEVER AFTER A LOOK AT THE NEW MODEL RUNS...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING
BOTH A WIND ADVISORY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS) DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL BE ISSUING A UPDATE FOR THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS.  THE CHANGES MAY NOT SIGNIFICANT TO
CAUSE MUCH OF A WORDING CHANGE...BUT WILL ISSUE ZFP ANYWAY.

WILL ALSO UPDATE SPS (FOR SNOW WIND AND RAIN) TO COVER UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

ONDREJIK

.PREV DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TODAY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM NE KENTUCKY...TO WRN NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
LOW CENTER WILL FORM ACROSS SERN PENN AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
FOCUSING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN (1-1.5) ACROSS OUR EXTREME
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR IF A NCRFB (NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND)
WITH STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND ERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. ODDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR IT...WITH
SOME 45 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POSS MINOR WIND DAMAGE) BUT THE DVLPMT OF
A SECONDARY WAVE WILL DELAY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.

THE WIND WILL DEFINITELY BLOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH)...AND THE
SNOWFLAKES WILL FLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NW MTNS WHERE
A GOOD UPSTREAM FETCH ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE...AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE 700-500 HPA LAYER WILL LEAD TO FREQUENT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN AND NW MTNS. WENT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR NOW...AND MENTIONED 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE WRN
MTNS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE DEEP UPR TROUGH SWINGS NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SUNDAY...BUT A CHILLY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT PRECIP THREAT WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MREF DATA INDICATES GENERALLY RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN UNDER A WEAK UPR RIDGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SPS FOR LOCALLY 1+ RAINFALL TODAY...GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 45 MPH)
ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 SNOW WRN AND NW MTNS
TONIGHT.
&&

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-281215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND
COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE
COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR DAMAGE AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH
SUSTAINED IN ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
BE COMMON LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PLEASE RELAY REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH...ANY WIND
DAMAGE...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-282030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2003

...A CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE
STATE AND HAS PRODUCED SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. WHILE WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS...POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG...AND BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDENTS
SHOULD USE TODAY TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS...IN ANTICIPATION OF
THESE STRONG WINDS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY
TONIGHT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY BY LATE
TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ACCUMULATING SNOW...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AN INCH OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AN INCH OR LESS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS EARLY...BUT
THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST...AND MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM.

ONDREJIK

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP