Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TIMING OF
SHWR/TSTM CHANCES TODAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE STATE.  SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AS MID LVL SHEAR NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...AS REFLECTED BY GENERAL THUNDER AREA PROGGED BY SPC FOR
TODAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP BEST IN THE THICKNESS PACKING THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. ETA INDICATEDS LAYER
PWS DECREASE BELOW 1.0 BY LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH OF
THE STATE. WL NEED TO CARRY CHC POPS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT NRN ZONE CUTS WILL HAVE MAINLY MORNING POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA.

A QUIET DAY IS THEN SEEN FOR THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS TO
OUR NORTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS SOUTH OF THE REGION. RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH BEHIND AMPLIFYING 5H RIDGE AXIS IS SEEN
FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  SLGT CHC SHOWERS RETURNING LATE THU
NIGHT... BUT MORE LIKELY BY FRI AFTN AS LAYER PWS SURGE ABOVE 1.5
AGAIN AND SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PROPOGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW. OO UTC GFS INDICATES THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL
CONT TO BRING CHC POPS TO CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
DRIER SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AGAIN FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE RETURN MOISTURE FLOW REPLAYS ITSELF FOR LATE MON INTO
TUES.

ISC GRIDS AND WORK ZONES SENT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HARRISBURG     87 64 85 67 / 30 20 10 10
WILLIAMSPORT   84 54 80 62 / 30 10 10 10
BRADFORD       75 43 75 58 / 30 10 10 20
JOHNSTOWN      77 60 77 62 / 30 20 20 20
ALTOONA        82 56 82 63 / 30 20 10 10
STATE COLLEGE  83 57 82 62 / 30 20 10 10
SELINSGROVE    86 64 82 64 / 30 10 10 10
LANCASTER      87 65 86 66 / 30 20 10 10
YORK           85 64 85 67 / 30 20 10 10

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.

DEVOIR

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-271015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
422 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PAZ024-025-033>035-271400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
832 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WILL MOVE INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY TORRENTIAL RAINS...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS ALSO
LIKELY.

WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DO NOT DERIVE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LA CORTE

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-272300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
855 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A HUMID UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION...WILL COMBINE TO BRING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE TODAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY SEVERE...CAUSING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LA CORTE