Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WV IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO FAR WRN TX W/ STRONG
CONVECTION FIRING ALL OVER CEN TX IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THE VORT. CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE BORDER ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS FROM IT TO
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE S/WV MVS THROUGH THE REGION.
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NRN ZONES AS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE S/WV TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING GOOD DYNAMICAL LIFT.
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AND THE CAP INCREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH DUE
TO A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE GOMEX FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY TSTM COMPLEX
AND WILL PROVIDE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS STH TX...MAKING THIS A
VERY DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS ALL BUT THE
CRP ZONES (KEEPING 20S THERE...THE EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO BUMP
THESE UP IN AN UPDATE). SPC HAS NRN AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLT RISK
OF SVR TSTMS...AND MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITY A LITTLE MORE
IN AN UPDATED HWO THIS EVENING.

SATS FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS LAY
COME MORNING. SHOULD CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS COMPLETELY ROLE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY END CHCS FOR MONDAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP A BLANKET 30 POP ALL ZONES FOR NOW
COUNTING ON LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW NEAR ERN OK ON SAT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE INITIAL S/WV AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. TIMING
IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW TO THE NE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT NIGHT.

LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH FRI)...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...CONCERN WILL
BE FOR REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD AND LESSEN THEM
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY (I.E. WILL PLAY THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION SCENARIO).  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTS IN LESSENING CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH NO POPS
AFTERWARDS.  AGAIN...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM WHICH I BELIEVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR
AREA.  JUST FIND IT HARD TO BUY THE AVN/GFS KEEPING POPS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OBTAINING A WESTERLY COMPONENT
HERE.  WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH COOLER MINS
(WHICH IF WE MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST) AND NOT LET MAXES UP TOO HIGH WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WILL BEGIN A GENERAL WARM UP TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP BT 079/093 076/089 074 23354
VCT BT 077/093 073/088 073 53454
LRD BT 079/101 077/095 076 43454

.CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM
       BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
    ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

88/MJG...SHORT-TERM
86/GW...LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
445 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND
COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO PRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT IS GREATEST NORTH OF A LAREDO TO PALACIOS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

SOME OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TR/TMT

TXZ229>234-239>247-140500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
723 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO...VICTORIA AND WEBB. SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE
ALICE...ARANSAS PASS...BEEVILLE...BENAVIDES...CORPUS CHRISTI...
COTULLA...ENCINAL...GEORGE WEST...GOLIAD...INGLESIDE...KINGSVILLE...
LAREDO...MATHIS...PORT ARANSAS...PORT LAVACA...PORT OCONNOR...
PORTLAND...REFUGIO...ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...SEADRIFT...SINTON...
SKIDMORE...THREE RIVERS...TILDEN AND VICTORIA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A DIME
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
0739 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 PM    ENCINAL                   TX   WIND DAMAGE
06/13/03   LA SALLE                       NWS CO-OP OBSERVER
                                          REPORTED LARGE TREES DOWN
                                          AND 60-70 MPH WINDS.

0713 PM    COTULLA                   TX   69 MPH WIND GUST
06/13/03   LA SALLE

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
0824 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    TILDEN                    TX   WIND DAMAGE
06/13/03   MCMULLEN                       COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED
                                          SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN IN
                                          TILDEN AND WINDS ESTIMATED
                                          AT 60 MPH.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
0838 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    40 NE LAREDO              TX   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/13/03   WEBB                           BORDER PATROL REPORTED
                                          HIGH WINDS AT CHECKPOINT 16
                                          MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREER ON
                                          HIGHWAY 59.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
0936 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0912 PM    CHARCO                    TX   WIND DAMAGE
06/13/03   GOLIAD                         LARGE TREES DOWN ALL OVER
                                          TOWN REPORTED BY GOLIAD
                                          COUNTY EMC.

JM