Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND BEHIND IT.  VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
AS STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND WEAK
ROTATION.  THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  DRY/COLD AIR
ALOFT IS AVAILABLE FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST WHERE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST.  FRONT FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH NOW.  EXPECT AFFORMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO COLIDE WITH FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN VERY GOOD CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION.  ENTIRE LINE
SHOULD THEN SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EAST...WITH LOWER POPS
WEST WHERE CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE IS LESS.  FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE N CWA AROUND 8 OR 9 PM...CLEAR THE S CWA AROUND 12 AM.  EXPECT
WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT.  CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
-RA MAY LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW.  WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS
AND STRONG CAA TOMORROW...WILL GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE JUST
NOT AS COLD AS THE MAV.  SCAS WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH THE POSITIVE TILT
MID TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THEN SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS/SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLOW DECREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO STAY STRONG ENOUGH INLAND THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE
IDEAL...WENT CLOSER TO THE FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR MONDAY MINS. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN FOR SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 62 50 73 / 70 40 10
VICTORIA       54 62 46 72 / 80 20 10
LAREDO         54 59 50 76 / 40 40 10

&&

.CRP...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA ALL MARINE ZONES.

&&

92/TR...SHORT-TERM
89/TMT..LONG-TERM

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL
WATERS.  MOST OF THESE WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE AREA IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF A BEEVILLE TO ROCKPORT LINE.  AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT FOR
THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG NORTH
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY...AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

MB/TE

TXZ229>234-239>247-261000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE VICTORIA AREA BY 800 PM THIS
EVENING AND THE LAREDO AND CORPUS CHRISTI AREAS AROUND 1100 PM.
THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIR TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE TO THE NORTHEAST OF A
THREE RIVERS TO ALICE TO PREMONT LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
UP TO TWO INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  AS THE NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AND
AS CLOUDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
40S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

TMT