Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT THRU 00Z WED)...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS EWX
AND HGX CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS CRP CWA...
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. SHORT-WAVE COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH HGX CWA WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SPC HAS ISSUED A SVR TSTM BOX FOR NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES AND REFUGIO THRU 01Z WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THRU THE EVENING
AND INTO TOMORROW WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -9 DEG C BY TOMORROW. ETA
A TAD TOO FAST WITH CLOSING OFF UPR LVL LOW AND MOVING IT SOUTHWEST
AND GFS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH SPINNING UP SFC LOW ALONG COAST AND
MOVING IT NORTHEAST. SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH THRU STATE AND 7H-3H QV CONVERGENCE
WILL WARRANT LIKELY POPS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR TOMORROW FROM
NORTHEAST CWA TO FAR WEST RESPECTIVELY.

LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONG AWAITED UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AN INVERTED TROF REMAINS ALONG
THE COAST. COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC W/ THE UPR LOW WILL PRODUCE AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY HEATING OCCURS IN THE DAY
PERIODS. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION WED AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH END CHC POPS.
COLD MID LVL TEMPS POINTS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
STORMS WED...BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LIMIT INSOLATION KEEPING THE
RISK LOW. THE UPR LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...DRAWLING THE INVERTED TROF AND A POOL OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT RWS/TRWS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING INLAND EARLY W/ A SRLY/SERLY STEERING FLOW WED
NIGHT/THU. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREAS...KEEPING 50 POPS ELSEWHERE. MID LVL TEMPS WILL BE
WARMING SLOWLY AS MOISTURE INCREASES...SO THINK MAIN THREAT FROM
CONVECTION THESE PERIODS WILL MAINLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE ZFP JUST YET. HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTENT
OVR THE 4 CORNERS WILL DUMBBELL AROUND THE UPR LOW AND TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVR THE DEEP SOUTH/MS RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL INITIALLY PRODUCE DECREASING MOISTURE WITH POPS TAPERING OFF
AND INCREASING DAYTIME HIGHS AFTER A FEW RAIN COOLED DAYS. THAT
BEING SAID...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ERLY WAVE (POSSIBLE
ORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM??) STEERED WEST UNDER THE LOW RIGHT AT THE
TEXAS COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT FOR THIS
FEATURE AND WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

CRP TT 072/090 072/089 072 45354
VCT TT 073/091 071/089 071 56353
LRD BT 077/095 075/091 073 33345

JR/76....SHORT-TERM
MJG/88...LONG TERM

.CRP...SVR TSTM WATCH TIL 01Z FOR LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...
BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA AND REFUGIO.

TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1100 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 37
AND HIGHWAY 77.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.  LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE TEXAS COAST ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BB/TR/JR

TXZ229>234-246-112200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VICTORIA...GOLIAD...BEE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...LASALLE AND REFUGIO.  THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COMMUNITIES...VICTORIA...GOLIAD...BEEVILLE...GEORGE WEST...TILDEN...
COTULLA...AND REFUGIO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT...AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER...
PREFERABLY IN AN INTERIOR OR UNDERGROUND ROOM AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS...IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SPOTTED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

GW