Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2003

SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT THRU SUN NITE)...ISOLATED TSRA CURRENTLY OVER
BEE/GOLIAD COUNTIES WITH OTHERS DEVELOPING ALONG SEABREEZE JUST NE
OF OUR CWA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING A LITTLE
LATER.  25H LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THRU THE PD.  POOL OF
LOW LEV MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.  MESOETA/GFS SHOW INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN AS
UPPER LOW MOVES WEST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...SO
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TOMORROW AFTN AS
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCAPPED.  SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...SO WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL COME UP A TAD AND
WILL KEEP SCEC GOING.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS/SKIES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THRU SATURDAY)...TROF AT 500MB PROGD TO SLIDE
ACROSS CENT TX MON AND THEN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACRS THE MID
SECTION OF TEX THRU FRI. THIS PROVIDES A SW DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF S/WVS AND POOLS OF MOISTURE FOR MON AND TUE.
MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER MON THEN DECREASING TUE AND WED AS THE TROF
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY NW AND HIGH PRESS BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
DOMINANT FROM THE SE. NE CWA WILL BE PLACED IN MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
AND LOWER DYNAMICS. THUS CHC MON FOR NE CWA...DECREASING TO SLGHT
CHC TUE/WED. BY THU THE LATEST AVN RUN SHOWS AN EASTERLY WAVE OVR
THE E GULF THAT IS EXPECTED TO TREK ACROSS THE GULF TWD THE TX
COASTLINE. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS THIS TO A LESSER DEGREE.
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME...A CF MOVES INTO NE TX THEN STALLS WITH
THE UPPER LEV MID LAT TROF SHIFTING E. THE SLY FLOW AHD OF THE TROF
HELPS TO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ON THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WLY MID LAT TROF AND THE E WAVE BOTH BRINGING MOISTURE OVR THE CWA
ON THU SHOULD PROMOTE SCT PRECIP. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONT INTO FRI
WITH DECREASING MOISTURE BY SAT. THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LEV RIDGE
BLDG ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. WHICH WOULD
MEAN DRIER MID/UPPER LEV AIRMASS ON SAT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUN HAD BEEN
A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHCS THUS WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC FOR
SAT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FLIP FLOPPING MODEL RUNS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMO. A SLY WEAK TO MOD FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
PERIOD DUE TO COMBINATION OF SEA/LAND THERMAL CONTRAST AND SFC LOW
PRES OVR W TX AND HIGH PRES TO THE E. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BRIEFLY KICK WINDS UP A FEW KNOTS BUT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

CRP  BB  075/092 075/092 075   13121
VCT  BB  074/092 074/093 075   13131
LRD  BB  078/098 078/099 079   -2111

.CRP...NONE.

91...JD (SHORT-TERM)
81...TE (LONG-TERM)

TXZ229>234-239>247-271100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
425 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS WEST ACROSS MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAINFALL BE BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
WEST AND MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE SLIGHTLY.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS...AND TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BB/GW