Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
145 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE WATCH.

SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...MODELS CONT TO SHOW A
SERIES OF S/WVS THRU FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH SFC BDRIES/CF. AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND BEYOND.
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE TIMING OF THESE WAVES. LINE OF TSRAS CURRENTLY
MVG ACROSS CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONT AFFECTING THE SRN CWA INTO LATE
AFTERNOON THEN A BRIEF LULL BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV TREKS ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING AROUND 09Z FRI MORN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OVR
THE GULF WATERS TO THE SE OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS PROGD TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE BDRY CURRENTLY OVR THE
CWA MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE DECREASING POPS TONIGHT THEN
INCREASING FRI MORN TO CHC. BY FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER S/WV PROGD TO
SLIDE SWD FROM THE BIG BEND REGION THEN TWD W CWA TREKKING GENERALLY
SE TWD 12Z SAT. MAY ADJUST 1ST PERIOD POPS JUST BEFORE ISSUANCE
BASED ON ONGOING WX. AS FOR WINDS...CF/SFC BDRIES ASSOC WITH
CONVECTION WILL CONT TO FLUCTUATE WIND DIR/SPEED. OVERALL SUSTAINED
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRAS.
FRIS HIGH EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH FCSTD LEVS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

LONG-TERM (SAT THROUGH THU)...FRIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
COAST BY SAT BEFORE MVG BACK TO THE NORTH LATE SAT. SRLY FLOW WILL
RETURN BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST AND STALLS
ONCE AGAIN SUN NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AS ETA DRYS THINGS OUT MORE FM THE NW...BUT AM
INCLINED TO GO W/ WETTER GFS AS IT HAS SEEMED TO DO BEST WRT
MOISTURE THUS FAR. TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AS NW
STEERING FLOW COULD BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS
NW AND CEN TX SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR DAYTIME
HOURS AND IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THE TIMING OF S/WVS AND JET
DYNAMICS THAT WILL SPARK THE CONVECTION ALONG THE DIFFERENT SFC
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...ANY OVERNIGHT MCS MVG
THROUGH THE REGION TYPICALLY SUPPRESSES CONVECTION THE FOLLOWING DAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS SAT THROUGH MON...BUT
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH ANY ONE PERIOD DUE TO TIMING DIFFICULTIES AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THINGS FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT TUES AND WILL NOT
CARRY ANY POPS BEYOND WED. HOPE TO BE ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF
PRECIP MORE OVR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVR THE CEN PLAINS. SSW FLOW WILL PROMOTE DRYING AND WARM
TEMPS W/ WESTERN AREAS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES BY WED AND WELL INTO
THE 90S ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

CRP EE 073/091 073/089 075 33433
VCT EE 070/091 070/090 074 34433
LRD EE 073/097 073/094 075 34433

.CRP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT.

81 (SHORT-TERM)
88 (LONG-TERM)

TXZ229>234-239>247-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY ACROSS VICTORIA AND
GOLIAD COUNTIES THROUGH 3 PM...THEN OVER PORTIONS OF WEBB...DUVAL...
JIM WELLS...NUECES...KLEBERG AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES AFTER 2 PM.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL PENNY SIZED OR LARGER...AND STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IN ADDITION...A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT TROPICAL AIRMASS.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE
FUNNELS REMAIN ALOFT AND DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND...RESIDENTS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF ANY
FUNNEL CLOUD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WIND...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

GW

TXZ233-234-245>247-052000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3PM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL 300 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF GOLIAD...VICTORIA...REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN.
SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE GOLIAD...VICTORIA...TIVOLI...
SEADRIFT AND PORT LAVACA.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING
THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
THUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF A PENNY
OR LARGER...STRONG WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AND EVEN TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

JM

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP

TXZ229>234-239>247-051900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 3PM.

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF
THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

AT 1240 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM COTULLA TO CHOKE CANYON TO NURSERY. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND.

THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.  A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A BERCLAIR TO ROCKPORT LINE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

JM

TXZ229>234-239>247-052000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 3PM.

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND...

AT 200 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FREER TO SKIDMORE TO PORT LAVACA. THIS LINE WAS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND.

THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
DUVAL...LIVE OAK...BEE...REFUGIO AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
3 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

JM

TXZ229>234-239>247-052102-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
317 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
BEND HAS EXPIRED...

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND...

AT 315 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BENAVIDES TO CORPUS CHRISTI TO ROCKPORT.
THIS LINE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DUVAL...
NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...AND ARANSAS COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1/2 TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 2
INCHES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

JM